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Candidate Valence: Evidence From Consecutive Presidential Elections

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Author Info
Arianna Degan
Abstract

This article develops and estimates a dynamic spatial model of voting. The distribution of voters' policy positions and candidates' valence are recovered using individual-level data on voting decisions in two consecutive presidential elections. The estimated model is used to provide an equilibrium interpretation of observed individual voting profiles and aggregate electoral outcomes as well as to conduct counterfactual experiments that assess the impact of candidates' policy positions, valence, and voters' information on electoral outcomes. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00434.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 48 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 457-482
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:2:p:457-482

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  1. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2006. "A Structural Model of Turnout and Voting in Multiple Elections," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fernandez, Jose & Cataiefe, Guido, 2009. "Model of the 2000 Presidential Election: Instrumenting for Ideology," MPRA Paper 16264, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Azrieli, Yaron, 2009. "An axiomatic foundation for multidimensional spatial models of elections with a valence dimension," MPRA Paper 14513, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2007. "A Structural Model of Turnout and Voting in Multiple Elections, Fourth Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Raphael Franck & Samia Tavares, 2008. "Income and vote switching between local and national elections: evidence from New York State," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 4(10), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
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