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Speculative Attacks and the Information Role of the Interest Rate

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  • Nikola A. Tarashev

Abstract

This paper models currency attacks as carried out by speculators who condition their actions on private signals about the state and on the market-clearing interest rate. Besides affecting speculators' payoffs, this interest rate also provides an endogenous public signal. For a plausible type of investment strategies, the dual role of the interest rate allows the model to explain abrupt and intense speculative attacks solely via economic fundamentals, without resorting to sunspot variables. This result underlies a novel policy implication: An official intervention in the foreign exchange market may reinforce a currency peg by influencing the precision of public information. (JEL: D82, D84, F31) (c) 2007 by the European Economic Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 5 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 1-36

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:5:y:2007:i:1:p:1-36

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Cited by:
  1. Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Strategic complementarity, fragility, and regulation," IESE Research Papers D/928, IESE Business School.
  2. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
  3. Campos, Rodolfo G., 2013. "Risk-sharing and crises. Global games of regime change with endogenous wealth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1624-1658.
  4. Nikola A Tarashev, 2008. "Speculative attacks, Private Signals and Intertemporal Trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 254, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Tijmen Daniëls & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2009. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Tomasz Michalski & Gilles Stoltz, 2013. "Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Might," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 591-616, May.

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