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Do Countries falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Do

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  • Tomasz Michalski
  • Gilles Stoltz

Abstract

We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data in a strategic manner. Among those suspected are countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions or negative current account balances, which corroborates the intuition developed with a simple economic model. We also find that countries with bad institutional quality rankings and those in Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe and Latin America release economic data of questionable veracity. Our evidence calls for models with public signals to consider strategic misinformation and for establishing independent statistical agencies to assure the delivery of high quality economic data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c015_018.

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Length: 59 Pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c015_018

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Related research

Keywords: capital flows; public information provision; misinformation; Benford's law; transparency;

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References

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  1. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: Unique equilibrium and transparency," Munich Reprints in Economics 19430, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Guido M. Sandleris, 2005. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," 2005 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Tomasz Michalski & Gilles Stoltz, 2010. "Do Countries falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Do," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_018, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  4. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2004. "Coordination and Policy Traps," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000294, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Nye John & Moul Charles, 2007. "The Political Economy of Numbers: On the Application of Benford's Law to International Macroeconomic Statistics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, July.
  6. Robert J. Aumann, 1995. "Repeated Games with Incomplete Information," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011476, December.
  7. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 429-450, December.
  8. Sbracia, Massimo & Zaghini, Andrea, 2001. "Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 203-222, April.
  9. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Efficient Use of Information and Social Value of Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1103-1142, 07.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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Cited by:
  1. Tomasz Michalski & Gilles Stoltz, 2013. "Do countries falsify economic data strategically? Some evidence that they might," Post-Print halshs-00482106, HAL.
  2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00482106 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2010. "Do countries falsify economic date strategically? Some evidence that they do," Les Cahiers de Recherche 930, HEC Paris.

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