IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/macfem/v10y2017i3p268-285.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Botswana

Author

Listed:
  • Bernard Njindan Iyke
  • Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Abstract

The paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Botswana. It also reviews the country’s exchange rate regimes. Botswana operated a fixed exchange – without adjustable pegs from 1966 to 1976; with adjustable pegs from 1976 to 1980; and with a currency basket from 1980 to date. Using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure, the paper found terms of trade and trade openness to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate. The actual real exchange rate has deviated significantly from the equilibrium exchange rate. The estimated speed of adjustment is very slow, which calls for policies that could raise it in order to avoid excess misalignments.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Modelling long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Botswana," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 268-285, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:10:y:2017:i:3:p:268-285
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2016.1244094
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17520843.2016.1244094
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/17520843.2016.1244094?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Helge Berger & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 263, CESifo.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Patrick Imam & Camelia Minoiu, 2011. "The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Mauritius: Evidence from Two Structural Models," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 134-147, November.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    8. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
    9. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    11. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
    12. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    13. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Alessandro Prati & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/002, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
    15. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    17. Mauricio Cárdenas, 1997. "La tasa de cambio en Colombia," Cuadernos de Fedesarrollo 12740, Fedesarrollo.
    18. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    19. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    20. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    21. Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Peter B. Clark & Mr. Leonardo Bartolini & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Occasional Papers 1994/001, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    23. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-478, November.
    24. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237, December.
    25. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
    26. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    27. Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 2002/027, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2003/044, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prabheesh, K.P. & Prakash, Branesh & Vuniivi, Viliame, 2023. "Assessment of Fiji’s exchange rate," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1282-1305.
    2. Zameelah Khan Jaffur & Boopen Seetanah & Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia, 2020. "A cross-country analysis of the determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1686-1697.
    3. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    4. Johane Motsatsi, 2020. "How Non-Diamond Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Volatility in Botswana," Working Papers 77, Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2015. "The Determinants of Long-run Real Exchange Rate in South Africa: A Fundamental Equilibrium Approach," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 319-336, September.
    2. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Macro Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Small Island Economy: Evidence from Mauritius via BMA," MPRA Paper 68968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2018. "Macro Determinants Of The Real Exchange Rate In A Small Open Small Island Economy:Evidence From Mauritius Via Bma," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Aykut Kibritcioglu & Bengi Kibritcioglu, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey, 1987-2003 (in Turkish)," Macroeconomics 0403006, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Apr 2004.
    5. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Exchange rate regime, real misalignment and currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 5-14.
    7. Yasser Abdih & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "FEER for the CFA franc," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2009-2029.
    8. Fabien Candau & Michaël Goujon & Jean-François Hoarau & Serge Rey, 2014. "Real exchange rate and competitiveness of an EU's ultra-peripheral region: La Reunion Island," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 1-21.
    9. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    11. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2005. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 256-275, June.
    12. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    13. Ndlela, Thandinkosi, 2010. "Implications of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries: theory, empirical evidence and application to growth performance in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 32710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," FIW Working Paper series 065, FIW.
    15. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2003/044, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Makin, Anthony J. & Rohde, Nicholas, 2012. "Has Australia's floating exchange rate regime been optimal?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1338-1343.
    18. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    19. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.
    20. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:10:y:2017:i:3:p:268-285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.