IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bid/wpaper/77.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Non-Diamond Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Volatility in Botswana

Author

Listed:
  • Johane Motsatsi

    (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis)

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on non-diamond exports in Botswana using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model used quarterly data for the period 1995-2018, to estimate both the long and short run dynamics. The estimated results show that real GDP in the non-diamond sector, GDP growth of OECD countries, transport investment and water & electricity investment have a positive impact on non-diamond exports. While the lending interest rate, inflation differentials, exchange rate volatility and misalignment impact non-diamond exports negatively. The findings indicate that the coefficients with respect to the exchange rate volatility in both models are relatively low, suggesting that it has not had harmful impacts on non-diamond exports. This reflects the emphasis given to a stable and competitive exchange rate that will attract increased foreign demand which, as a result, could lead to export diversification. However, Botswana’s export structure is still undiversified, despite efforts made to diversify the sector. To achieve the national objectives of sustainable export and economic diversification, the policy should continue encouraging a stable and competitive exchange rate. Other policies intended to boost export growth should focus on: expanding the production base of the non-diamond sector, committing more investment in the transport sector, and improving water & electricity infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Johane Motsatsi, 2020. "How Non-Diamond Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Volatility in Botswana," Working Papers 77, Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:bid:wpaper:77
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://knowledge.bidpa.bw:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/159
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obeng, Camara Kwasi, 2017. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Non-Traditional Exports in Ghana," MPRA Paper 79026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Policy and Non-Traditional Exports in Developing Countries," WIDER Working Papers 295341, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Sekkat, Khalid & Varoudakis, Aristomene, 2000. "Exchange rate management and manufactured exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 237-253, February.
    4. J. Clark Leith, 2020. "Botswana's Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Policy: Three Intruments and Three Targets," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 20202, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    5. Mpho Bosupeng & Janet Dzator & Andrew Nadolny, 2019. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Capital Flight from Botswana: A Cointegration Approach with Risk Thresholds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Clark Leith, J., 1991. "The exchange rate and the price level in a small open economy: Botswana," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 309-315.
    7. Arize, A. C., 1995. "Trade flows and real exchange-rate volatility: an application of cointegration and error-correction modeling," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 37-51.
    8. BIDPA & The World Bank, 2006. "Prospects for Export Diversification in Botswana," Books, Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis, number 121, december.
    9. Kealeboga Masalila & Oduetse Motshidisi, 2003. "Botswana's exchange rate policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 122-127, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Naledi C. Modisaatsone & G.R. Motlaleng, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Botswana`s imports," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 125-138.
    11. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
    12. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Modelling long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Botswana," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 268-285, September.
    13. André C. Jordaan & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2007. "Testing the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for Botswana: A Causality Analysis," Working Papers 200720, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Haile K. Taye, 2013. "Is the Botswana Pula Misaligned?," Working Papers 33, Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis.
    15. Titus O. Awokuse & Yan Yuan, 2006. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. poultry exports," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 233-245.
    16. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naseeem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui & Mohd, Siti, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regime, Exchange Rate Variability and Flows of Malaysia’s Foreign Trade," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 44, pages 35-49.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    4. Dimitrios Serenis & Paul Serenis, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility, the E.U. and Sectoral Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Chemical Sector (1973-2005)," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(1), pages 47-55, November.
    5. Naseem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui-Boon & Hamizah, M.S, 2008. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2022. "The U.S.‐Canadian trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 841-866, March.
    7. Viviane Naimy & Rim El Khoury & José-María Montero & Jana Souk, 2023. "Post-Brexit exchange rate volatility and its impact on UK exports to eurozone countries: A bounds testing approach," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 135-168, March.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.K. and China: An Asymmetric Analysis," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 41-65, January.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and Japan–U.S. commodity trade: An asymmetry analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(11), pages 3287-3318, November.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli & Farhang Niroomand, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: evidence from G7," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 38-62, March.
    11. Wesley, J.D. & Shen, Xuan & Li, Sheng & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Agricultural Trade Bias in Exchange Rate Volatility Effect Estimation: An Application of Meta-Regression Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124870, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Helmut Herwartz & Henning Weber, 2005. "Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth—a comparison of linear and non‐linear (forecasting) models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 1-26, January.
    13. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    14. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
    15. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    16. Smith, C. E., 1999. "Exchange rate variation, commodity price variation and the implications for international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 471-491.
    17. Emmanuelle Chevassus-Lozza, 2003. "Compte rendu d'ouvrage - Exchange rate volatility and international agricultural trade," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 68, pages 175-181.
    18. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?," Working papers 2005-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    19. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 611-626, January.
    20. Hussaini Umaru & Aguda Niyi A. & Nordiana Osagie Davies, 2018. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth of West African English-Speaking Countries," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 131-143, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-diamond exports; Exchange rate volatility; Botswana;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bid:wpaper:77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Poloko Ntokwane (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://wwww.bidpa.bw/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.