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The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes

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Author Info
Michael Webb
Abstract

While analyses of export instability and diversification policies typically focus on aggregate earnings, a conflict can arise between income instability at the aggregate and household levels. Diversification can reduce a country's aggregate income instability and simultaneously increase the instability experienced by many households, and perhaps by every household in the country. We demonstrate how alternative export portfolios can produce this conflict in instability. The conflict means that the conclusions from previous empirical studies need to be qualified and policy recommendations need to be carefully formulated.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 14 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 271-280
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:3:p:271-280

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Related research
Keywords: Export; fluctuation; diversification; portfolio; instability; development;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Brundell, Peter & Horn, Henrik & Svedberg, Peter, 1981. "On the Causes of Instability in Export Earnings," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 43(3), pages 301-13, August.
  2. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
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  3. Kenen, Peter B & Voivodas, Constantine S, 1972. "Export Instability and Economic Growth," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 791-804.
  4. Kose, M. Ayhan & Riezman, Raymond, 2001. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 55-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/169, International Monetary Fund.
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  6. Jonathan Eaton & Gene M. Grossman, 1985. "Tariffs as Insurance: Optimal Commercial Policy When Domestic Markets Are Incomplete," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 258-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 647-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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