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Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model

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  • Jim Lee

Abstract

This paper revisits the effect of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on the extent of business cycle synchronization across its member states. A dynamic latent factor model is used to identify the 'regional' effect of the euro area on output growth and inflation dynamics across European countries. The results of variance decomposition analysis confirm that both output growth and inflation tended to be more synchronized among European countries during the run-up to the EMU, but there is no strong evidence to support the argument that the 'regional' effects prevailed after 1999.

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  • Jim Lee, 2013. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 347-364, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:27:y:2013:i:3:p:347-364
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2012.659278
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    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_003 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    2. Uctum Merih & Uctum Remzi & Vijverberg Chu-Ping C., 2021. "The European growth synchronization through crises and structural changes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Zuzanna Urbanowicz, 2015. "Nieadekwatność polityki pieniężnej Europejskiego Banku Centralnego w procesie stabilizacji makroekonomicznej w strefie euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 5-25.
    4. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Exploring CESEE-EMU Synchronisation Patterns," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 255-255, May.
    5. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region’s Integration Projects," Working Papers 1424, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    7. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.
    8. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    9. Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2021. "Factor Models with Sparse VAR Idiosyncratic Components," Papers 2112.07149, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    10. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    11. Andrea Bonilla, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region's Integration Projects," Working Papers halshs-01069353, HAL.
    12. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    13. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    14. Andrea Bonilla BOLAÑOS, 2017. "Are South American Countries Really Converging?: The Influence of the Region's Integration Projects," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 130-149, September.
    15. Carlo Ciccarelli & Anna Missiaia, 2018. "The fall and rise of business cycle co-movements in Imperial Austria’s regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 171-193, January.

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