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Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin

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  • Elie Bouri
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Xuan Vinh Vo

Abstract

Are price discontinuities in cryptocurrencies jointly related to large swings in geopolitical risk? This is a relevant question to answer given recent news from the press that Bitcoin’s price jumps are driven by jumps in the level of geopolitical risk index. To answer this question, we examine first the jump incidence of daily returns for Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies and then study the co-jumps between cryptocurrencies and the geopolitical risk index using logistic regressions. Our dataset is at the daily frequency and covers the period 30 April 2013 to 31 October 2019. The results show that the price behaviour of all cryptocurrencies under study is jumpy but only Bitcoin jumps are dependent on jumps in the geopolitical risk index. This revealed evidence of significant co-jumps for the case of Bitcoin only nicely complements previous studies arguing that Bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitical risk.

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  • Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 150-161, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:2:p:150-161
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1848285
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    Cited by:

    1. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Andrea Delle Foglie & Gianni Pola, 2021. "Make the Best from Comparing Conventional and Islamic Asset Classes: A Design of an All-Seasons Combined Portfolio," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "“Digital Gold” and geopolitics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Long, Huaigang & Demir, Ender & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Mustafa Kevser & Fatih Ayhan, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of global factors on return of cryptocurrencies by novel nonlinear quantile approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1515-1535, June.
    6. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Tunali, 2022. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Working Papers hal-03638273, HAL.
    7. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The effects of geopolitical uncertainty on cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Ben Nouir, Jihed & Ben Haj Hamida, Hayet, 2023. "How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Zhang, Zhengyong & Bouri, Elie & Klein, Tony & Jalkh, Naji, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the returns and volatility of global defense companies: A new race to arms?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Anupam Dutta & Elie Bouri, 2022. "Outliers and Time-Varying Jumps in the Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-7, March.
    11. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

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