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Moving to autarky, trade creation and home market effect: an exhaustive analysis of regional trade agreements in Africa

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  • Fabien Candau
  • Geoffroy Guepie
  • Julie Schlick

Abstract

This article analyses the effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on bilateral trade in Africa. A structural gravity equation is estimated over the period 1955–2014. The overall effect of RTAs on African trade is strong, but depending on the nature of the RTAs, there is a decreasing impact over time. While Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) still favour trade in Africa, there was no trade creation coming from Free Trade Agreements between 1990 and 2014. However, the provisions of RTAs do not have a negative impact on trade: agreements that include behind-the-border policies do not significantly deter bilateral trade. To explain the declining impact of RTAs, we look at their redistributive impact between members states. There is no evidence that large countries disproportionally export diversified goods due to RTAs (no ‘home effect’). Countries with a good international network (‘hub effect’) benefited more than other countries of RTAs between 1955 and 1990 but this is however less true on the most recent period (1990–2014).

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Julie Schlick, 2019. "Moving to autarky, trade creation and home market effect: an exhaustive analysis of regional trade agreements in Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(30), pages 3293-3309, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:30:p:3293-3309
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1566691
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    Cited by:

    1. Geoffroy Guepie & Julie Schlick, 2019. "Gains and Losses in a Trade Bloc: The Case of the East African Community," Working papers of CATT hal-02625875, HAL.
    2. Borsky, Stefan & Leiter, Andrea Maria, 2022. "International trade in rough diamonds and the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    4. Geoffroy Guepie & Julie Schlick, 2019. "Gains and Losses in a Trade Bloc: The Case of the East African Community," Working Papers hal-02625875, HAL.
    5. Johnson, Michael E. & Farris, Jarrad & Morgan, Stephen & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Ajewole, Kayode & Beckman, Jayson, 2022. "Africa's Agricultural Trade: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area," USDA Miscellaneous 333528, United States Department of Agriculture.
    6. Julie SCHLICK & Geoffroy GUEPIE, 2019. "Gains and Losses in a Trade Bloc: The Case of the East African Community," Working Papers 2019-2020_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Dec 2019.
    7. Fabien Candau, 2019. "Marginalisation commerciale de l'Afrique," Post-Print hal-02306417, HAL.

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