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Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment

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  • Robert Dekle
  • Jonathan Eaton
  • Samuel Kortum

Abstract

This paper uses a 42-country model of production and trade to assess the implications of eliminating current account imbalances for relative wages, relative GDPs, real wages, and real absorption. How much relative GDPs need to change depends on flexibility of two forms: factor mobility and adjustment in sourcing of imports, with more flexibility requiring less change. At the extreme, U.S. GDP falls by 30 percent relative to the world's. Because of the pervasiveness of nontraded goods, however, most domestic prices move in parallel with relative GDP, so that changes in real GDP are small. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 511–540. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.17; published online 24 June 2008

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 511-540

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:511-540

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References

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Philippe Martin & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 13795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
  3. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
  4. Samuel Kortum & Jonathan Eaton & Robert Dekle, 2007. "Unbalanced Trade," 2007 Meeting Papers 921, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, . "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  6. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2008. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence from French Firms," NBER Working Papers 14610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  8. Michael E. Waugh, 2009. "International trade and income differences," Staff Report 435, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00348888 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. William D. Craighead & David R. Hineline, 2013. "As the Current Account Turns: Disaggregating the Effects of Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(12), pages 1516-1541, December.
  3. Shawn Arita & Kiyoyasu Tanaka, 2014. "Heterogeneous multinational firms and productivity gains from falling FDI barriers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 83-113, February.
  4. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2013-02, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
  5. Holger Breinlich & Alejandro Cuñat, 2013. "Tariffs, Trade and Productivity: A Quantitative Evaluation of Heterogeneous Firm Models," CeFiG Working Papers 20, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 10 Jul 2013.
  6. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ravasan, Farshad R & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2013. "The origins of the German current account surplus: Unbalanced productivity growth and structural change," CEPR Discussion Papers 9527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Esther Pérez Ruiz & Uffe Mikkelsen, 2012. "The Trade Impact of China on EMU: Is It Even Across Members?," IMF Working Papers 12/221, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Arita, Shawn & Tanaka, Kiyoyasu, 2013. "FDI and investment barriers in developing economies," IDE Discussion Papers 431, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  9. Ferdinando Monte, 2014. "Local Transmission of Trade Shocks," Working Papers 2014-001, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  10. Robert C. Feenstra & Philip A. Luck & Maurice Obstfeld & Katheryn N. Russ, 2014. "In Search of the Armington Elasticity," NBER Working Papers 20063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ariel Burstein & Jonathan Vogel, 2010. "Globalization, Technology, and the Skill Premium: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 16459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Robert Dekle, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates in a Model of Structural Change: Applications to the Real Yen-Dollar and Chinese RMB-Dollar Exchange Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  13. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook," Sciences Po publications 2013-02, Sciences Po.
  14. Fabrizio Coricelli & Andreas Wörgötter, 2012. "Structural Change and the Current Account: The Case of Germany," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 940, OECD Publishing.
  15. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Is the Armington Elasticity Really Constant across Importers?," MPRA Paper 15954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Neiman, Brent, 2010. "Stickiness, synchronization, and passthrough in intrafirm trade prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 295-308, April.
  17. Lux, Matthias, 2011. "Defying Gravity: The Substitutability of Transportation in International Trade," MPRA Paper 36395, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
  18. Yi Wen, 2011. "Making sense of China’s astronomical foreign reserves," Working Papers 2011-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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