Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession
AbstractThis article evaluates the cyclicality, inertia and effect of EU accession on fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) using a real time dataset. Budget balances are found to react in a stabilizing way to economic activity -- every extra percentage point of economic growth is associated with an improvement in the budget balance of 0.3 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -- and there is no evidence of an asymmetric reaction to the cycle. Balances are much less inert than is typically found in Western Europe. However, there is clear evidence of a fiscal loosening in the run-up to EU accession. This began in 1999 in larger central European countries, often identified as ‘front-runners’. The other seven began loosening in 2001, after the Nice Treaty was agreed. For both sets of countries, this loosening cumulatively amounts to some 3% of GDP.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 23 (August)
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Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
Other versions of this item:
- John Lewis, 2009. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: Cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," DNB Working Papers 214, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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