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Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession

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  • John Lewis

Abstract

This article evaluates the cyclicality, inertia and effect of EU accession on fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) using a real time dataset. Budget balances are found to react in a stabilizing way to economic activity -- every extra percentage point of economic growth is associated with an improvement in the budget balance of 0.3 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -- and there is no evidence of an asymmetric reaction to the cycle. Balances are much less inert than is typically found in Western Europe. However, there is clear evidence of a fiscal loosening in the run-up to EU accession. This began in 1999 in larger central European countries, often identified as ‘front-runners’. The other seven began loosening in 2001, after the Nice Treaty was agreed. For both sets of countries, this loosening cumulatively amounts to some 3% of GDP.

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  • John Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3347-3359, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:23:p:3347-3359
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.705428
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    Cited by:

    1. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
    2. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    3. Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra & Randjelovic, Sasa, 2017. "Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 367-378.
    4. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    6. Vladimir Andrić & Milojko Arsić & Aleksandra Nojković, 2016. "Public Debt Sustainability In Serbia Before And During The Global Financial Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 47-78, July - Se.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stanova, Nadja, 2015. "Fiscal discretion, growth and output volatility in new EU member countries," MPRA Paper 63946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Andric, Vladimir & Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra, 2016. "Public Debt Sustainability in Serbia-Evidence from Transition and the Great Recession," EconStor Preprints 126682, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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