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Threshold nonlinearities in output: some international evidence

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Author Info

  • D. A. Peel
  • A. E. H. Speight

Abstract

The empirical adequacy of linear AR and nonlinear SETAR models of trend-stationary and difference-stationary representations of output for Canada, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are appraised. Test results suggest the presence of linear model residual structure of some form for all series, and nonlinearities of specifically threshold form in trend-stationary data for Canada, Germany, Japan and the US, and difference-stationary data for Germany, Japan and the US. With the exception of Canada, estimated threshold nonlinear models imply asymmetric dynamics, are able to account for all nonlinear structure in the data on the basis of BDS statistics, and provide sizeable reductions in residual variance in several cases, most notably for Germany.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 323-333

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:3:p:323-333

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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González, . "Some Evidence of Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 105, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A View Throught Non- Linear Models," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002691, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-63, October.
  4. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  5. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Marian Vavra, 2012. "A Note on the Finite Sample Properties of the CLS Method of TAR Models," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1206, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  8. Cai, Yuzhi, 2007. "A quantile approach to US GNP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 969-979, November.
  9. Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
  10. Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011. "A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples
    [The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]
    ," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni, 2004. "Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-253.

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