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Can intervention indices detect central bank's actual intervention behaviour?

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  • Yu-Ming Hsiao
  • Sheng-Chieh Pan
  • Po-Chin Wu

Abstract

This article employs the Weymark (1997) and Baig et al. (2003) models to evaluate the central bank's intervention behaviour and utilizes ex post intervention news to check the models' estimation results. Empirical results show that the Baig et al. model's evaluation performance in intervention behaviour is inferior to the Weymark model. The scale of intervention index is not an excellent indicator to detect intervention behaviour. Intervention indices and intervention news all support that the intervention frequency in expansion period is higher than in recession period and in face of fatal events the intervention exhibits cluster phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Ming Hsiao & Sheng-Chieh Pan & Po-Chin Wu, 2010. "Can intervention indices detect central bank's actual intervention behaviour?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1525-1530.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:15:p:1525-1530
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850903018713
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
    2. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Kenshi Taketa, 2007. "Assessment Of Weymark'S Measures Of Exchange Market Intervention: The Case Of Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 545-558, December.
    3. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    4. Baig, Mirza Allim & Narasimhan, V. & Ramachandran, M., 2003. "Exchange market pressure and the Reserve Bank of India's intervention activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 727-748, November.
    5. Fischer, Andreas M., 2006. "On the inadequacy of newswire reports for empirical research on foreign exchange interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1226-1240, December.
    6. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers (Old Series) 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-79, February.
    8. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    9. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    10. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 1999. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 1999/114, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Hsiao, Yu-Ming & Pan, Sheng-Chieh & Wu, Po-Chin, 2012. "Does the central bank's intervention benefit trade balance? Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 130-139.

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