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Global Sensitivity Analysis-based Design of Low Impact Development Practices for Urban Runoff Management Under Uncertainty

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  • Majid Hashemi

    (K. N. Toosi University of Technology)

  • Najmeh Mahjouri

    (K. N. Toosi University of Technology)

Abstract

In this paper, a new methodology is developed for urban runoff management based on global sensitivity analysis of the storm water management model (SWMM) considering uncertainties. The variogram analysis of response surface (VARS) model is utilized for sensitivity analysis of the SWMM parameters by combining the runoff simulation model of the SWMM with VARS. Three model efficiency metrics, namely Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency metric for the runoff, NSE metric for the logarithm of the runoff, and percent bias in simulating runoff are used to evaluate SWMM outputs and rank its parameters. The reliability of the obtained rankings of parameters is evaluated by developing a bootstrapping-based strategy to estimate confidence intervals for the calculated sensitivity values. A multi-objective optimization model is integrated with the calibrated SWMM, to select optimum scenarios of low impact development-best management practice (LID-BMP). To take into account the rainfall uncertainty, design storm hyetograph is stochastically derived using Monte Carlo analysis and Huff curves (Huff in Water Resour Res 3(4):1007–1019, 1967; Time distributions of heavy rainstorms in Illinois, State of Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources, Illinois, 1990). Finally, a socially acceptable LID-BMP scenario out of a set of non-dominated solutions is obtained using the Nash bargaining theory. The proposed method is applied to an urban watershed Iran. The resulted LID-BMPs could decrease runoff volume and pollution load by 24% and about 74%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Majid Hashemi & Najmeh Mahjouri, 2022. "Global Sensitivity Analysis-based Design of Low Impact Development Practices for Urban Runoff Management Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 2953-2972, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03140-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03140-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jiake Li & Yutong Yao & Menghua Ma & Yajiao Li & Jun Xia & Xujun Gao, 2021. "A Multi-Index Evaluation System for Identifying the Optimal Configuration of LID Facilities in the Newly Built and Built-up Urban Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2129-2147, May.
    2. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    3. Huan-Feng Duan & Fei Li & Hexiang Yan, 2016. "Multi-Objective Optimal Design of Detention Tanks in the Urban Stormwater Drainage System: LID Implementation and Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4635-4648, October.
    4. Husnain Tansar & Huan-Feng Duan & Ole Mark, 2022. "Catchment-Scale and Local-Scale Based Evaluation of LID Effectiveness on Urban Drainage System Performance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 507-526, January.
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    1. Aurora Gullotta & Tagele Mossie Aschale & David J. Peres & Guido Sciuto & Antonino Cancelliere, 2023. "Modelling Stormwater Runoff Changes Induced by Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic Solar Parks: A Conceptualization in EPA-SWMM," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(11), pages 4507-4520, September.
    2. José M. Rodríguez-Flores & Jorge A. Valero Fandiño & Spencer A. Cole & Keyvan Malek & Tina Karimi & Harrison B. Zeff & Patrick M. Reed & Alvar Escriva-Bou & Josué Medellín-Azuara, 2022. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Economic Model and Groundwater Restriction Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6115-6130, December.
    3. Amirhossein Nazari & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2023. "Integrated SUSTAIN-SWMM-MCDM Approach for Optimal Selection of LID Practices in Urban Stormwater Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3769-3793, July.

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