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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data

Author

Listed:
  • Diana Fiorillo

    (University of Naples Federico II)

  • Zoran Kapelan

    (Delft University of Technology (TU Delft))

  • Maria Xenochristou

    (Stanford University)

  • Francesco De Paola

    (University of Naples Federico II)

  • Maurizio Giugni

    (University of Naples Federico II)

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Fiorillo & Zoran Kapelan & Maria Xenochristou & Francesco De Paola & Maurizio Giugni, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1449-1462, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02789-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02789-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. V. Noto & G. Cipolla & D. Pumo & A. Francipane, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2307-2323, May.
    2. Jacek Wawrzosek & Syzmon Ignaciuk & Justyna Stańczyk & Joanna Kajewska-Szkudlarek, 2021. "Water Consumption Variability Based on Cumulative Data From Non-simultaneous and Long-term Measurements," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(9), pages 2799-2812, July.
    3. Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho & Francisco Souza Filho, 2021. "Variational Mode Decomposition Hybridized With Gradient Boost Regression for Seasonal Forecast of Residential Water Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3431-3445, August.
    4. Hassan Bazazzadeh & Peiman Pilechiha & Adam Nadolny & Mohammadjavad Mahdavinejad & Seyedeh sara Hashemi safaei, 2021. "The Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Building Energy Consumption in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.

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