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Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability of Irrigation Demands in Mediterranean Europe

Author

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  • Luis Garrote
  • Ana Iglesias
  • Alfredo Granados
  • Luis Mediero
  • Francisco Martin-Carrasco

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of water resources management under climate change in Southern European River Basin Districts. The analysis is based on the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model, which focuses on the quantitative evaluation of maximum potential water withdrawal for different types of demands. The Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis model performs the simulation of water resources systems at the monthly time scale and allows the estimation of the demand-reliability curve in every subbasin of the river network. Over sixty River Basin Districts of Southern Europe have been analyzed, taking basic information from publicly available databases: basin topology from the Hydro1K database, average runoff from the University of New Hampshire Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) composite runoff field, population from the Global Rural–urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) and irrigation area from the Global Map of Irrigated Area dataset. Streamflow monthly time series were obtained from the results of the ENSEMBLES project in four climate scenarios for time horizon 2070–2100. Climate change vulnerability of irrigation demands is estimated from changes in maximum potential water withdrawals for irrigation in current and future scenarios. Maximum potential water withdrawal for irrigation was computed as the largest value of irrigation demand that could be supplied with a given reliability requirement once the existing urban demand is adequately satisfied. The results show significant regional disparities in vulnerability to climate change in the irrigation sector across Europe. The greatest vulnerabilities have been obtained for Southwest Europe (Iberian Peninsula) and some basins in Italy and Greece. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Garrote & Ana Iglesias & Alfredo Granados & Luis Mediero & Francisco Martin-Carrasco, 2015. "Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability of Irrigation Demands in Mediterranean Europe," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 325-338, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:2:p:325-338
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0736-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Francisco Flores & Marta Moneo, 2007. "Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 775-788, May.
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    1. Davidson, Brian & Hellegers, Petra & George, Biju & Malano, Hector, 2019. "The opportunity costs of increasing reliability in irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 173-181.
    2. Zahidul Islam & Thian Gan, 2015. "Future Irrigation Demand of South Saskatchewan River Basin under the Combined Impacts of Climate Change and El Niño Southern Oscillation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2091-2105, April.
    3. Luis Garrote, 2017. "Managing Water Resources to Adapt to Climate Change: Facing Uncertainty and Scarcity in a Changing Context," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2951-2963, August.
    4. Álvaro Sordo-Ward & Isabel Granados & Francisco Martín-Carrasco & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Impact of Hydrological Uncertainty on Water Management Decisions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5535-5551, November.
    5. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    6. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    7. Ana Iglesias & Berta Sánchez & Luis Garrote & Iván López, 2017. "Towards Adaptation to Climate Change: Water for Rice in the Coastal Wetlands of Doñana, Southern Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(2), pages 629-653, January.
    8. Gómez-Limón, José A. & Granado-Díaz, Rubén, 2023. "Assessing the demand for hydrological drought insurance in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    9. Dolores Rey & Alberto Garrido & Javier Calatrava, 2016. "An Innovative Option Contract for Allocating Water in Inter-Basin Transfers: the Case of the Tagus-Segura Transfer in Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1165-1182, February.
    10. Silvestre García de Jalón & Marta González del Tánago & Carlos Alonso & Diego García de Jalón, 2017. "The Environmental Costs of Water Flow Regulation: an Innovative Approach Based on the ‘Polluter Pays’ Principle," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2809-2822, July.
    11. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 0. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899.
    12. Beltrán-Esteve, Mercedes & Picazo-Tadeo, Andrés J., 2017. "Assessing environmental performance in the European Union: Eco-innovation versus catching-up," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 240-252.
    13. Alfonso Expósito, 2019. "Valuing Households’ Willingness to Pay for Water Transfers from the Irrigation Sector: A Case Study of the City of Seville (Southern Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Araceli Martin-Candilejo & Francisco J. Martin-Carrasco & Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote, 2023. "Heading into the Unknown? Exploring Sustainable Drought Management in the Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    15. Sarfaraz Alam & Mekonnen Gebremichael & Ruopu Li & Jeff Dozier & Dennis P. Lettenmaier, 2019. "Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley, California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 387-406, December.
    16. Philippe Debaeke & Anaïs Tibi & Agneta Forslund & Hervé Guyomard & Bertrand Schmitt, 2022. "Could domestic soybean production avoid Europe’s protein imports in 2050?," Post-Print hal-03890770, HAL.
    17. Diogenis A. Kiziridis & Anna Mastrogianni & Magdalini Pleniou & Spyros Tsiftsis & Fotios Xystrakis & Ioannis Tsiripidis, 2023. "Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    18. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    19. I. Tsakmakis & N. Kokkos & V. Pisinaras & V. Papaevangelou & E. Hatzigiannakis & G. Arampatzis & G.D. Gikas & R. Linker & S. Zoras & V. Evagelopoulos & V.A. Tsihrintzis & A. Battilani & G. Sylaios, 2017. "Operational Precise Irrigation for Cotton Cultivation through the Coupling of Meteorological and Crop Growth Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 563-580, January.

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