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Future Irrigation Demand of South Saskatchewan River Basin under the Combined Impacts of Climate Change and El Niño Southern Oscillation

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  • Zahidul Islam
  • Thian Gan

Abstract

We assessed the future irrigation demand of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of Alberta subjected to combined impact of climate change and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the Irrigation District Model (IDM) of Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development. Based on the agro-climatic data of SSRB of 1928–1995, the potential impact of climate change on SSRB’s irrigation water demand for three future periods, i.e., 2010–2039 (2020s), 2040–2069 (2050s), 2070–2099 (2080s) are simulated by IDM on the basis of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios projected by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The combined impact on SSRB’s irrigation water demand is also simulated on the basis of SRES climate scenarios together with an active El Niño or La Niña in the 2050s. If only the potential impact of climate change is considered, IDM’s simulations for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s show a general increasing trend in the irrigation demand in the 21st century for both the irrigation districts and the private irrigation blocks. On the average, water demands for the irrigation districts and private irrigation blocks are expected to increase by 7% and 11% in the 2020s, 12% and 17% in the 2050s, and 13% and 18% in the 2080s, respectively. While considering the combined impact for the 2050s, a further 7% decrease (1% increase) in the irrigation demand is projected under an active El Niño (La Niña) episode. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Zahidul Islam & Thian Gan, 2015. "Future Irrigation Demand of South Saskatchewan River Basin under the Combined Impacts of Climate Change and El Niño Southern Oscillation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2091-2105, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:6:p:2091-2105
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-0930-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fouad H. Saeed & Mahmoud S. Al-Khafaji & Furat A. Mahmood Al-Faraj, 2021. "Sensitivity of Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions towards Sustainable Management of Water Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh, 2018. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Surface and Ground Water Withdrawal: A New Global Data Base of Costs and Returns of Irrigation Part I: Background, Method, and Data," Conference papers 332975, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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