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Do fluctuations in exchange rate hinder non-oil export? An analysis of agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria

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  • Ekundayo Peter Mesagan

    (Pan-Atlantic University)

  • Kolawole Kushimo

    (University of Lagos)

  • Dominic Ikoh Umar

    (University of Lagos)

Abstract

This study examines the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on non-oil export by focusing on both manufactured exports and agriculture exports in Nigeria between 1970 and 2019. The study employs the vector error correction framework, the impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to analyse data on agriculture exports, manufacturing exports, exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate. Findings suggest that long run relationship exists among the variables. The vector error correction analysis reveals that exchange rate depreciation positively impacts agriculture exports but negatively impacts manufacturing exports in Nigeria. However, both the impulse response and variance decomposition analyses confirm that exchange rate fluctuation has a higher significance on manufacturing exports than agriculture exports by accounting for the largest forecast error variance in manufacturing exports than in agriculture exports over the forecast horizon. We conclude that fluctuations in exchange rate significantly impact the non-oil exports in Nigeria. Hence, to enhance the non-oil exports, government could consider enhancing the local capacity to produce for exports by reducing tariffs for manufactured inputs. They can also set up modular mechanised farms for agriculture graduates and farmers to boost agriculture exports and stabilize the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekundayo Peter Mesagan & Kolawole Kushimo & Dominic Ikoh Umar, 2021. "Do fluctuations in exchange rate hinder non-oil export? An analysis of agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(11), pages 1-23, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:1:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1007_s43546-021-00156-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-021-00156-4
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    Cited by:

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    2. Salaudeen Mohammed Bashir, 2023. "Effect of Crude Oil Revenue on the Oil and Non-oil Sectors in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 138-161, October.
    3. Ismaila Akanni Yusuf & Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen & Isaac Azubuike Ogbuji, 2022. "Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Inflation Nexus in Nigeria: The Case of Recent Recession," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 81-87.
    4. Yusuf, Ismaila Akanni & Salaudeen, Mohammed Bashir & Agbonrofo, Hope, 2021. "Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 111086, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Agriculture exports; Manufacturing exports; Non-oil exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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