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The determinants of China's lending rates and interest rates pass-through: A cointegration analysis

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  • Liu, Kerry

Abstract

Based on quarterly data between Q4, 2008–Q4, 2017, this study examines the interest rates pass-through from policy rate to lending rates, and more broadly, the determinants of lending rates in China. The results show that while there is a certain level of pass-through from money market rates to lending rates, and the interest rates pass-through has improved after the interest rate liberalization completion on October 2015, this pass-through is also negatively affected by the asset quality of commercial banks and shadow banking activities as well. This study also finds that the macroeconomic condition also affects the lending rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Kerry, 2019. "The determinants of China's lending rates and interest rates pass-through: A cointegration analysis," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 66-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:66-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2019.02.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter & Pedroni, Peter & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending rates in low-income countries: Heterogeneous panel estimates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 117-131.
    2. Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili, 2011. "Determinants of Interest Rate Pass-Through: Do Macroeconomic Conditions and Financial Market Structure Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/176, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Weth, Mark A., 2002. "The pass-through from market interest rates to bank lending rates in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Kerry Liu, 2017. "China's Interest Rate Pass-through to Commercial Banks Before and After Interest Rate Liberalisation," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 279-287, June.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
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    8. Leonardo Gambacorta & Anamaria Illes & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2014. "Has the transmission of policy rates to lending rates been impaired by the Global Financial Crisis?," BIS Working Papers 477, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 587-623, December.
    10. Kerry Liu, 2018. "Chinese Manufacturing in the Shadow of the China–US Trade War," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 307-324, October.
    11. Ms. Angeliki Kourelis & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 1994/039, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiangyi Zhou & Zheng Pei & Botao Qin, 2021. "Assessing Market Competition in the Chinese Banking Industry Based on a Conjectural Variation Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(2), pages 73-98, March.
    2. Kerry Liu, 2022. "The Chinese Government Bond Markets: Foreign Investments and Market Efficiency," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 93-104, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    People's Bank of China (PBC); Policy rate; Lending rate; Interest rate pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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