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Barwert von Cashflows und Residualgewinnen bei unsicheren Inflationserwartungen

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  • Frank Richter

    (vormals Universität Ulm)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die Diskontierung von Cashflows führt unter bekannten Voraussetzungen zum gleichen Resultat (Barwert) wie die Diskontierung von Residualgewinnen unter Einbezug des bilanziellen Werts des Eigenkapitals. Gleiches gilt für die Diskontierung auf Basis nominaler und realer Geldeinheiten: Wird der Kalkül konsistent aufgebaut, ist nicht von Bedeutung, ob reale oder nominale Cashflows bewertet werden. Ob dies hingegen auch für Residualgewinne gilt, wird in der jüngeren L iteratur kontrovers diskutiert. Die formalen Begründungen für oder gegen das Vorliegen der äquivalenz-Thesen beruhen in der Regel auf der Annahme deterministischer Inflationsraten. Werden unsichere Inflationsraten erfasst, erfolgt dies entweder für risikoneutrale Investoren oder in Kombination mit speziellen Bewertungstheorien wie etwa dem Capital Asset Pricing Model. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird gezeigt, unter welchen Voraussetzungen die Diskontierung von Cashflows und Residualgewinnen bei Vorliegen unsicherer Inflationserwartungen sowohl auf realer als auch auf nominaler Basis zu äquivalenten Ergebnissen führt. Dabei wird deutlich, dass inflationsinduzierte, jedoch unternehmensspezifische Effekte bei den Diskontierungsraten und bei den Residualgewinnen zu berücksichtigten sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Richter, 2011. "Barwert von Cashflows und Residualgewinnen bei unsicheren Inflationserwartungen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 430-457, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:63:y:2011:i:5:d:10.1007_bf03372848
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03372848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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