IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v27y2022i2d10.1007_s11027-021-09992-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agroforestry and reforestation with the Gold Standard-Decision Analysis of a voluntary carbon offset label

Author

Listed:
  • Leonie Netter

    (University of Bonn, INRES Horticultural Sciences)

  • Eike Luedeling

    (University of Bonn, INRES Horticultural Sciences)

  • Cory Whitney

    (University of Bonn, INRES Horticultural Sciences)

Abstract

Voluntary standards can help to ensure the quality of projects eligible for carbon offsetting, i.e., selling carbon certificates. However, in deciding on whether to adopt such standards, the managers of carbon offset projects are faced with uncertainty regarding the costs and risks involved. Decision Analysis provides a helpful set of tools that can support such decisions by forecasting outcomes under different scenarios. We applied Decision Analysis methods to generate models for the decisions to certify two projects in Costa Rica with the voluntary carbon offset label “The Gold Standard”. We evaluated certifying an additional site of a partially certified reforestation project, as well as the initial certification of an agroforestry project. We calibrated and interviewed decision-makers and stakeholders of the certification projects to identify important parameters and translate these into a decision model. We ran the final decision model as a Monte Carlo simulation to project plausible ranges of decision outcomes, expressed as Net Present Values and annual cash flows. We identified critical uncertainties and research priorities by using the Expected Value of Perfect Information. The results indicate that certification of the two projects would result in a positive Net Present Value. The partially low return on investment of the certification, however, shows the need for projects to undergo thorough evaluation and generate customized strategies before participating in a voluntary carbon offset scheme. The Decision Analysis approaches we describe can help to improve the process of decision making under uncertainty and should be widely adopted for evaluating the potential impacts of certification.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonie Netter & Eike Luedeling & Cory Whitney, 2022. "Agroforestry and reforestation with the Gold Standard-Decision Analysis of a voluntary carbon offset label," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:27:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11027-021-09992-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09992-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-021-09992-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-021-09992-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2004. "Sustaining Forests : A Development Strategy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14951, December.
    2. Lyon, Aidan & Wintle, Bonnie C. & Burgman, Mark, 2015. "Collective wisdom: Methods of confidence interval aggregation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1759-1767.
    3. Kangas, Annika S. & Kangas, Jyrki, 2004. "Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 169-188, March.
    4. Heather C. Lovell, 2010. "Governing the carbon offset market," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 353-362, May.
    5. Kim, Hyeyoung & House, Lisa A. & KIm, Tae-Kyun, 2016. "Consumer perceptions of climate change and willingness to pay for mandatory implementation of low carbon labels: the case of South Korea," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(4), October.
    6. Adam G. Bumpus & Diana M. Liverman, 2008. "Accumulation by Decarbonization and the Governance of Carbon Offsets," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 84(2), pages 127-155, April.
    7. MacKerron, George J. & Egerton, Catrin & Gaskell, Christopher & Parpia, Aimie & Mourato, Susana, 2009. "Willingness to pay for carbon offset certification and co-benefits among (high-)flying young adults in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1372-1381, April.
    8. Wytze van der Gaast & Richard Sikkema & Moriz Vohrer, 2018. "The contribution of forest carbon credit projects to addressing the climate change challenge," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 42-48, January.
    9. Paul W. Fischer & Alison C. Cullen & Gregory J. Ettl, 2017. "The Effect of Forest Management Strategy on Carbon Storage and Revenue in Western Washington: A Probabilistic Simulation of Tradeoffs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 173-192, January.
    10. Keith Shepherd & Douglas Hubbard & Norman Fenton & Karl Claxton & Eike Luedeling & Jan de Leeuw, 2015. "Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making," Nature, Nature, vol. 523(7559), pages 152-154, July.
    11. Liu, Longzhu & Chen, Rong & He, Feng, 2015. "How to promote purchase of carbon offset products: Labeling vs. calculation?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 942-948.
    12. Whitney, Cory W. & Tabuti, John R.S. & Hensel, Oliver & Yeh, Ching-Hua & Gebauer, Jens & Luedeling, Eike, 2017. "Homegardens and the future of food and nutrition security in southwest Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 133-144.
    13. Adam G. Bumpus & Diana M. Liverman, 2008. "Accumulation by Decarbonization and the Governance of Carbon Offsets," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 84(2), pages 127-155, April.
    14. Reihaneh Entezari & Patrick E. Brown & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, 2020. "Bayesian spatial analysis of hardwood tree counts in forests via MCMC," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lauren Gifford, 2020. "“You can’t value what you can’t measure”: a critical look at forest carbon accounting," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 291-306, July.
    2. Lo, Alex Y. & Chen, Kang, 2020. "Business participation in the development of a Chinese emission trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Lim, Hea-Jin & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2014. "Train travel passengers' willingness to pay to offset their CO2 emissions in Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 526-531.
    4. Jayme Walenta, 2020. "Climate risk assessments and science‐based targets: A review of emerging private sector climate action tools," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    5. Anna Davies & Niamh Kirwan, 2010. "Rescaling climate justice: sub-national issues and innovations for low carbon futures," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp340, IIIS.
    6. Nabernegg, Stefan & Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Muñoz, Pablo & Titz, Michaela & Vogel, Johanna, 2019. "National Policies for Global Emission Reductions: Effectiveness of Carbon Emission Reductions in International Supply Chains," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 146-157.
    7. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
    8. Heather Lovell & Harriet Bulkeley & Diana Liverman, 2009. "Carbon Offsetting: Sustaining Consumption?," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(10), pages 2357-2379, October.
    9. Mahtab Kouhizadeh & Joseph Sarkis, 2018. "Blockchain Practices, Potentials, and Perspectives in Greening Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Yonn Dierwechter & Anne Taufen Wessells, 2013. "The Uneven Localisation of Climate Action in Metropolitan Seattle," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(7), pages 1368-1385, May.
    11. Svenja Keele, 2019. "Consultants and the business of climate services: implications of shifting from public to private science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 9-26, November.
    12. Eric Helleiner & Jason Thistlethwaite, 2013. "Subprime catalyst: Financial regulatory reform and the strengthening of US carbon market governance," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 496-511, December.
    13. Thoyre, Autumn, 2015. "Energy efficiency as a resource in state portfolio standards: Lessons for more expansive policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 625-634.
    14. Mark Whitehead, 2013. "Neoliberal Urban Environmentalism and the Adaptive City: Towards a Critical Urban Theory and Climate Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(7), pages 1348-1367, May.
    15. Gareth A S Edwards & Harriet Bulkeley, 2017. "Urban political ecologies of housing and climate change: The ‘Coolest Block’ Contest in Philadelphia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(5), pages 1126-1141, April.
    16. Mark H Cooper, 2015. "Measure for measure? Commensuration, commodification, and metrology in emissions markets and beyond," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 47(9), pages 1787-1804, September.
    17. Burke, Joshua & Gambhir, Ajay, 2022. "Policy incentives for greenhouse gas removal techniques: the risks of premature inclusion in carbon markets and the need for a multi-pronged policy framework," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115010, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Maxwell T Boykoff & Adam Bumpus & Diana Liverman & Samual Randalls, 2009. "Theorizing the Carbon Economy: Introduction to the Special Issue," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(10), pages 2299-2304, October.
    19. Julie Doyle & Nathan Farrell & Michael K. Goodman, 2020. "The cultural politics of climate branding: Project Sunlight, the biopolitics of climate care and the socialisation of the everyday sustainable consumption practices of citizens-consumers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 117-133, November.
    20. Reynolds, Travis W., 2012. "Institutional Determinants of Success Among Forestry-Based Carbon Sequestration Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 542-554.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:27:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11027-021-09992-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.