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Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR

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  • Björn Alecke

    ()

  • Timo Mitze

    ()

  • Gerhard Untiedt

    ()

Abstract

Die Arbeit untersucht die kausale Beziehung zwischen regionalen Arbeitsmarktvariablen und internen Migrationsstömen für deutsche Bundesländer zwischen 1991–2006. Die Autoren verwenden ein VAR Modell mit Paneldaten zur Identifikation der Feedback Effekte zwischen den Variablen und zur Analyse der dynamischen Eigenschaften des Systems mit Hilfe von Impuls-Antwort Funktionen. Darüber hinaus wird das Modell verwendet, um die Entwicklung der spezifischen Ost-West Wanderungen nach der Wiedervereinigung zu analysien und das ostdeutsche ‚empirische Puzzle‘ zu beleuchten, welches eine Situation beschreibt, bei der Migrationsbewegungen nur unverhältnismäßig auf Arbeitsmarktungleichgewichte reagieren. In der Tat gibt die Analyse Hinweise für ein derartiges Puzzle in den 1990er Jahren, was insbesondere auf hohe West-Ost Einkommenstransfers, eine schnelle exogen getriebene Lohnanpassung an das West-Niveau sowie die Möglichkeit des Pendels zwischen den Makroregionen zurückzuführen ist. Allerdings dreht sich dieses Verhältnis in nachfolgenden Perioden: Entlang der zweiten Auswanderungswelle von Ost nach West um das Jahr 2001 sind die Netto-Ausströme aus Ostdeutschland viel höher als es die regionale Arbeitsmarktsituation erwarten lassen würde. Da diese zweite Abwanderungswelle mit dem graduellen Ausklingen der West-Ost Transferzahlungen und einer deutlich getrübten Erwartungshaltung hinsichtlich der Geschwindigkeit der Ost-West Einkommenskonvergenz einhergeht, wird für diese Periode der Abbau einer ‚zurückgestauten‘ Abwanderungswelle sichtbar. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2010

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft.

Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 159-189

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jahrfr:v:30:y:2010:i:2:p:159-189

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Keywords: Internal Migration; Panel VAR; System GMM; C33; J61; R23;

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Cited by:
  1. Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010. "Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.
  2. Mitze, Timo & Reinkowski, Janina, 2010. "Testing the Validity of the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Estimation Results for German Spatial Planning Regions," MPRA Paper 23616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Martinoia, Michela, 2009. "European integration, labour market dynamics and migration flows," POLIS Working Papers 136, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  4. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbsy, Oliver, 2014. "The capitalization of non-market attributes into regional housing rents and wages: Evidence on German functional labor market areas," CAWM Discussion Papers 71, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM), University of Münster.
  5. Matthias Duschl & Thomas Brenner, 2013. "Growth dynamics in regional systems of technological activities – A SVAR approach," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2013-12, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
  6. Mitze, Timo & Stephan, Andreas, 2013. "Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 309, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  7. Sala, Hector & Trivín, Pedro, 2013. "Labour Market Dynamics in Spanish Regions: Evaluating Asymmetries in Troublesome Times," IZA Discussion Papers 7746, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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