Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Internal Migration, Regional Labour Market Dynamics and Implications for German East-West Disparities – Results from a Panel VAR

Contents:

Author Info

  • Björn Alecke
  • Timo Mitze

    ()

  • Gerhard Untiedt

Abstract

This paper analyses the causal linkages between regional labour market variables and internal migration flows among German states between 1991–2006. We adopt a Panel VAR approach to identify the feedback effects among the variables and analyse the dynamic properties of the system through impulseresponse functions.We also use the model to track the evolution of the particular East-West migration since re-unification aiming to shed more light on the East German “empirical puzzle”, characterized by lower migration responses than expected from the regional labour market position relative to the West. We indeed get evidence for such a puzzle throughout the mid-1990s, which is likely to be caused by huge West-East income transfers, a fast exogenously driven wage convergence and the possibility of East-West commuting. However, we also observe an inversion of this relationship for later periods:That is, along with a second wave of East-West movements around 2001 net flows out of East Germany were much higher than expected after controlling for its weak labour market and macroeconomic performance. Since this second wave is also accompanied by a gradual fading out of economic distortions, this supports the view of “repressed” migration flows for that period.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_09_096.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0096.

as in new window
Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0096

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hohenzollernstraße 1-3, 45128 Essen
Phone: (0201)8149-0
Fax: (0201)8149-200
Email:
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/

Related research

Keywords: Internal migration; Panel VAR; System GMM;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption andLeisure Choice Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 1981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Peter Summers, 2000. "Labour Market Analysis with VAR Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Arellano, M., 1989. "A Note On The Anderson-Hsiao Estimator For Panel Data," Economics Series Working Papers 9975, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2002. "Exact tests for contemporaneous correlation of disturbances in seemingly unrelated regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 143-170, January.
  5. George J. Borjas, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," NBER Working Papers 2248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Joshua Hojvat Gallin, 1999. "Net migration and state labor market dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Wagner, Joachim, 1994. "German wage curves, 1979-1990," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 307-311.
  8. Maza, Adolfo & Villaverde, Jose, 2004. "Interregional Migration in Spain: A Semiparametric Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 34(2), pages 156-71.
  9. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  10. Francesco Daveri & Riccardo Faini, . "Where do migrants go?," Working Papers 124, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Michael Binder, Cheng Hsiao, and M. Hashem Pesaran, 2001. "Estimation and Inference in Short Panel Vector Autoregressions with Unit Roots and Cointegration," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 36, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. McCann, Philip, 2001. "Urban and Regional Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198776451.
  13. Dreger, Christian & Erber, Georg & Glocker, Daniela, 2009. "Regional Measures of Human Capital in the European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 3919, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Brücker, Herbert & Trübswetter, Parvati, 2004. "Do the Best Go West? An Analysis of the Self-Selection of Employed East-West Migrants in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 986, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Bode, Eckhardt & Zwing, Sebastian, 1998. "Interregionale Arbeitskräftewanderungen: theoretische Erklärungsansätze und empirischer Befund," Kiel Working Papers 877, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  16. Burda, Michael C., 1993. "The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
  17. Samuel Bentolila, . "Internal migration in Spain," Working Papers 2001-07, FEDEA.
  18. Carlo Devillanova & Walter Garcia Fontes, 1998. "Migration across Spanish provinces: Evidence from the social security records (1978-1992)," Economics Working Papers 318, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  19. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  20. Hunt, Jennifer, 2000. "Why Do People Still Live In East Germany?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2431, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Bond, Stephen Roy & Hoeffler, Anke & Temple, Jonathan, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Timo Mitze, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0083, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  23. Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010. "Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.
  24. Melanie Arntz, 2010. "What Attracts Human Capital? Understanding the Skill Composition of Interregional Job Matches in Germany," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 423-441.
  25. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour Mobility - An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland?," IZA Discussion Papers 34, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  26. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
  27. Etzo, Ivan, 2007. "Determinants of interregional migration in Italy:A panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 5307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  29. Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
  30. Etzo, Ivan, 2008. "Internal migration: a review of the literature," MPRA Paper 8783, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Jörg Decressin, 1994. "Internal migration in West Germany and implications for East-West salary convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 231-257, June.
  32. Salvatore, Dominick, 1980. "A simultaneous equations model of internal migration with dynamic policy simulations and forecasting : Italy, 1952-1976," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-246, April.
  33. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
  34. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  35. Ashok Parikh & Michiel Van Leuvensteijn, 2003. "Interregional labour mobility, inequality and wage convergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 931-941.
  36. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  37. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
  38. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  39. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-90, December.
  40. Bowsher, Clive G., 2002. "On testing overidentifying restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 211-220, October.
  41. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1989. "The Wage Curve," NBER Working Papers 3181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989. "The Wage Curve," Papers 340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  42. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  43. Lutz Schneider, 2005. "Ost-West-Binnenwanderung: Gravierender Verlust an Humankapital," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 11(10), pages 308-314.
  44. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2002. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior : evidence from panel vector autoregression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2913, The World Bank.
  45. Joachim Ragnitz, 2007. "Explaining the East German Productivity Gap � The Role of Human Capital," Kiel Working Papers 1310, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  46. repec:wop:humbsf:1998-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Michael W.M. Roos, 2003. "Regional price levels in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa03p511, European Regional Science Association.
  48. Bonin, Holger & Eichhorst, Werner & Florman, Christer & Hansen, Mette Okkels & Skiöld, Lena & Stuhler, Jan & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos & Thomasen, Henrik & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Report No. 19: Geographic Mobility in the European Union: Optimising its Economic and Social Benefits," IZA Research Reports 19, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  49. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2001. "From Reunification to Economic Integration: Productivity and the Labor Market in Eastern Germany," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 1-92.
  50. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-31, October.
  51. Decressin, Jörg & Fatás, Antonio, 1994. "Regional Labour Market Dynamics in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  52. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2006. "An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 958–980, April.
  53. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  54. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  55. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  56. Michael Gort & Seong-Hoon Lee, 2001. "The Demand for Human Capital: A Microeconomic Approach," Working Papers 01-16, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  57. Sven Schreiber, 2008. "The Hausman Test Statistic can be Negative even Asymptotically," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(4), pages 394-405, August.
  58. Jackman, Richard & Savouri, Savvas, 1992. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows Using NHS Central Register Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1433-50, November.
  59. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2007. "Phillips Curve or wage curve? : evidence from West Germany: 1980-2004," IAB Discussion Paper 200714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  60. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mitze, Timo & Stephan, Andreas, 2013. "Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 309, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  2. Martinoia, Michela, 2009. "European integration, labour market dynamics and migration flows," POLIS Working Papers 136, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  3. Sala, Hector & Trivín, Pedro, 2013. "Labour Market Dynamics in Spanish Regions: Evaluating Asymmetries in Troublesome Times," IZA Discussion Papers 7746, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Matthias Duschl & Thomas Brenner, 2013. "Growth dynamics in regional systems of technological activities – A SVAR approach," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2013-12, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
  5. Mitze, Timo & Reinkowski, Janina, 2010. "Testing the Validity of the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Estimation Results for German Spatial Planning Regions," MPRA Paper 23616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbsy, Oliver, 2014. "The capitalization of non-market attributes into regional housing rents and wages: Evidence on German functional labor market areas," CAWM Discussion Papers 71, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM), University of Münster.
  7. Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010. "Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0096. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.