IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v58y2020i4d10.1007_s00181-018-1549-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic long-range dependences in the Swiss stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Paulo Ferreira

    (VALORIZA - Research Center for Endogenous Resource Valorization
    Instituto Politécnico de Portalegre
    CEFAGE-UE, IIFA, Universidade de Évora)

Abstract

Although the analysis of dependence in financial markets started a century ago, there is still room for new work, both because statistical methods continue to de developed, allowing stronger and more robust analysis, and because more and more data is available. In this context, we propose to make a deep analysis of the Swiss stock market, one of the most important financial centres in the world, studying the main index and also 19 of its 20 components. We use detrended fluctuation analysis, which allows us to analyse the existence of long-term dependence in a given variable. As our objective is to analyse the evolution of that dependence over time, we use a sliding windows approach. The results show that several of the analysed stocks have a behaviour which is not consistent with the absence of dependence, which could be informative for actual and potential investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Dynamic long-range dependences in the Swiss stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1541-1573, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:58:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1549-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1549-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-018-1549-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-018-1549-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christos Christodoulou-Volos & Fotios Siokis, 2006. "Long range dependence in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1331-1338.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    3. Sadique, Shibley & Silvapulle, Param, 2001. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 59-67, January.
    4. Ausloos, Marcel & Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2016. "On the “usual” misunderstandings between econophysics and finance: Some clarifications on modelling approaches and efficient market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 7-14.
    5. Cao, Guangxi & Zhang, Minjia, 2015. "Extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 25-35.
    6. Ray, Bonnie K & Tsay, Ruey S, 2000. "Long-Range Dependence in Daily Stock Volatilities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 254-262, April.
    7. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    8. Manish Kumar & M. Thenmozhi, 2012. "Causal effect of volume on stock returns and conditional volatility in developed and emerging market," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 346-362.
    9. Lobato, Ignacio N & Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Long Memory in Stock-Market Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 410-427, October.
    10. Paulo Ferreira, 2016. "Apple, Alphabet or Microsoft: Which Is the Most Efficient Share?," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 1(2), pages 67-79, December.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Jubinski, Dan, 1999. "Equity Trading Volume and Volatility: Latent Information Arrivals and Common Long-Run Dependencies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-21, January.
    12. Anagnostidis, P. & Varsakelis, C. & Emmanouilides, C.J., 2016. "Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 116-128.
    13. Dusan Isakov, 1999. "Is beta still alive? Conclusive evidence from the Swiss stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 202-212.
    14. Tim Herberger & Daniel Kohlert & Andreas Oehler, 2011. "Momentum and industry-dependence: An analysis of the Swiss stock market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(6), pages 391-400, February.
    15. Ausloos, M. & Vandewalle, N. & Boveroux, Ph. & Minguet, A. & Ivanova, K., 1999. "Applications of statistical physics to economic and financial topics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 229-240.
    16. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2010. "Crash of '87 -- Was it expected?: Aggregate market fears and long-range dependence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 270-282, March.
    17. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    18. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    19. Vandewalle, N. & Ausloos, M., 1997. "Coherent and random sequences in financial fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 454-459.
    20. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    21. Carbone, A. & Castelli, G. & Stanley, H.E., 2004. "Time-dependent Hurst exponent in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 267-271.
    22. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Fabien Collado & Ulysse Galiay, 2011. "The dynamics of the volatility – trading volume relationship: New evidence from developed and emerging markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2569-2583.
    23. Matteo, T. Di & Aste, T. & Dacorogna, Michel M., 2005. "Long-term memories of developed and emerging markets: Using the scaling analysis to characterize their stage of development," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 827-851, April.
    24. Yanhui Liu & Pierre Cizeau & Martin Meyer & Chung-Kang Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1997. "Correlations in Economic Time Series," Papers cond-mat/9706021, arXiv.org.
    25. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    26. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    27. Christian Jochum, 1999. "Volatility spillovers and the price of risk: Evidence from the Swiss stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 303-322.
    28. da Silva, Marcus Fernandes & Leão Pereira, Éder Johnson de Area & da Silva Filho, Aloisio Machado & Nunes de Castro, Arleys Pereira & Miranda, José Garcia Vivas & Zebende, Gilney Figueira, 2015. "Quantifying cross-correlation between Ibovespa and Brazilian blue-chips: The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 124-129.
    29. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia, 2016. "How long is the memory of the US stock market?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 502-506.
    30. de Area Leão Pereira, Eder Johnson & da Silva, Marcus Fernandes & Pereira, H.B.B., 2017. "Econophysics: Past and present," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 251-261.
    31. Gvozdanovic, Igor & Podobnik, Boris & Wang, Duan & Eugene Stanley, H., 2012. "1/f behavior in cross-correlations between absolute returns in a US market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(9), pages 2860-2866.
    32. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
    33. Silvo Dajcman, 2012. "Time-varying long-range dependence in stock market returns and financial market disruptions -- a case of eight European countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 953-957, July.
    34. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Guedes, Everaldo Freitas & Zebende, Gilney Figueira, 2018. "A sliding windows approach to analyse the evolution of bank shares in the European Union," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1355-1367.
    35. David Rey & Markus Schmid, 2007. "Feasible momentum strategies: Evidence from the Swiss stock market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(3), pages 325-352, September.
    36. Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2009. "Dual long-memory, structural breaks and the link between turnover and the range-based volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 838-851, December.
    37. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420-420.
    38. Liu, Yanhui & Cizeau, Pierre & Meyer, Martin & Peng, C.-K. & Eugene Stanley, H., 1997. "Correlations in economic time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 437-440.
    39. Juan Luis Lopez & Jesus Guillermo Contreras, 2013. "Performance of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis on short time series," Papers 1311.2278, arXiv.org.
    40. Xi-Yuan Qian & Ya-Min Liu & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Boris Podobnik & Wei-Xing Zhou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2015. "Detrended partial cross-correlation analysis of two nonstationary time series influenced by common external forces," Papers 1504.02435, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.
    41. Paulo Ferreira & Andreia Dion�sio, 2014. "Revisiting serial dependence in the stock markets of the G7 countries, Portugal, Spain and Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 319-331, March.
    42. Zebende, G.F., 2011. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: Quantifying level of cross-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 614-618.
    43. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
    44. Ausloos, M., 2000. "Statistical physics in foreign exchange currency and stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 48-65.
    45. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dora Almeida & Andreia Dionísio & Paulo Ferreira, 2023. "When two banks fall, how do markets react?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 331-341.
    2. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Natália Costa & César Silva & Paulo Ferreira, 2019. "Long-Range Behaviour and Correlation in DFA and DCCA Analysis of Cryptocurrencies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferreira, Paulo, 2018. "Long-range dependencies of Eastern European stock markets: A dynamic detrended analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 454-470.
    2. Paulo Ferreira & Luís Carlos Loures, 2020. "An Econophysics Study of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-9, January.
    3. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Correia, José, 2018. "Non-linear dependencies in African stock markets: Was subprime crisis an important factor?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 680-687.
    4. Tilfani, Oussama & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Ferreira, Paulo & El Boukfaoui, My Youssef, 2022. "Heterogeneity in economic relationships: Scale dependence through the multivariate fractal regression," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    5. Ferreira, Paulo, 2018. "Efficiency or speculation? A time-varying analysis of European sovereign debt," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1295-1308.
    6. Ferreira, Paulo, 2019. "Assessing the relationship between dependence and volume in stock markets: A dynamic analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 90-97.
    7. Paulo Ferreira, 2017. "Portuguese and Brazilian stock market integration: a non-linear and detrended approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(1), pages 49-63, April.
    8. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Guedes, Everaldo Freitas & Zebende, Gilney Figueira, 2018. "A sliding windows approach to analyse the evolution of bank shares in the European Union," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1355-1367.
    9. Ferreira, Paulo & Loures, Luís & Nunes, José & Brito, Paulo, 2018. "Are renewable energy stocks a possibility to diversify portfolios considering an environmentally friendly approach? The view of DCCA correlation coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 675-681.
    10. Rodriguez, E. & Aguilar-Cornejo, M. & Femat, R. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2014. "US stock market efficiency over weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly time scales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 554-564.
    11. Sukpitak, Jessada & Hengpunya, Varagorn, 2016. "The influence of trading volume on market efficiency: The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 259-265.
    12. Henryk Gurgul & Tomasz Wójtowicz, 2006. "Long-run properties of trading volume and volatility of equities listed in DJIA index," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 16(3-4), pages 29-56.
    13. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    14. Ferreira, Paulo & Loures, Luís & Nunes, José Rato & Dionísio, Andreia, 2017. "The behaviour of share returns of football clubs: An econophysics approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 472(C), pages 136-144.
    15. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    16. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    17. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    18. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    19. Paulo Ferreira & Éder J. A. L. Pereira & Hernane B. B. Pereira, 2020. "The Exposure of European Union Productive Sectors to Oil Price Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    20. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia, 2016. "How long is the memory of the US stock market?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 502-506.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Detrended fluctuation analysis; Swiss stock market; Long-range dependencies; Sliding windows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:58:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1549-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.