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The rising share of nonmarital births: Fertility choice or marriage behavior?

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  • Jo Gray
  • Jean Stockard
  • Joe Stone

Abstract

Much of the sharp rise in the share of nonmarital births in the United States has been attributed to changes in the fertility choices of unmarried and married women - in response, it is often argued, to various public policies. In contrast, we develop and test a model that attributes the rise to changes in marriage behavior, with no changes in fertility. A variety of empirical tests strongly supports this conclusion and invites focused attention to issues related to marriage behavior, as well as the interactions between marriage and fertility.
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  • Jo Gray & Jean Stockard & Joe Stone, 2006. "The rising share of nonmarital births: Fertility choice or marriage behavior?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(2), pages 241-253, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:43:y:2006:i:2:p:241-253
    DOI: 10.1353/dem.2006.0012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Moffitt, 2000. "Welfare Benefits and Female Headship in U.S. Time Series," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 373-377, May.
    2. Jeff Grogger & Stephen G. Bronars, 2001. "The Effect of Welfare Payments on the Marriage and Fertility Behavior of Unwed Mothers: Results from a Twins Experiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 529-545, June.
    3. Marianne Bitler & Jonah Gelbach & Hilary Hoynes & Madeline Zavodny, 2004. "The impact of welfare reform on marriage and divorce," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(2), pages 213-236, May.
    4. Greg Duncan & Saul Hoffman, 1990. "Welfare benefits, economic opportunities, and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 519-535, November.
    5. Herbert Smith & Phillips Cutright, 1988. "Thinking about change in illegitimacy ratios: United States, 1963–1983," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(2), pages 235-247, May.
    6. Reagan Baughman & Stacy Dickert-Conlin, 2003. "Did Expanding the EITC Promote Motherhood?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 247-251, May.
    7. Dawn Upchurch & Lee Lillard & Constantijn Panis, 2002. "Nonmarital childbearing: Influences of education, marriage, and fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 311-329, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joe Stone, 2012. "The Black-White Gap in Non Marital Fertility: Education and Mates in Segmented Marriage Markets," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 328-336, September.
    2. Swastika Chakravorty & Srinivas Goli & K. S. James, 2021. "Family Demography in India: Emerging Patterns and Its Challenges," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    3. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Yujin Kim & R. Raley, 2015. "Race-Ethnic Differences in the Non-marital Fertility Rates in 2006–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(1), pages 141-159, February.
    5. Jo Anna Gray & Joe Stone, 2014. "Understanding Measures Of Nonmarital Fertility: The Roles Of Marriage And Access To Human Capital," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 288-305, April.
    6. Ester Fanelli, 2023. "Italian Nonmarital Fertility Ratio: Components of an Unexpected Rise," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Jennifer March Augustine & Timothy Nelson & Kathryn Edin, 2009. "Why Do Poor Men Have Children? Fertility Intentions among Low-Income Unmarried U.S. Fathers," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 624(1), pages 99-117, July.
    8. Todd D. Kendall & Robert Tamura, 2010. "Unmarried Fertility, Crime, and Social Stigma," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 185-221, February.
    9. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld & Wendy Sigle-Rushton & Renske Keizer & Trude Lappegård & Aiva Jasilioniene & Caroline Berghammer & Paola Di Giulio & Katja Köppen, 2009. "The increase in fertility in cohabitation across Europe: examining the intersection between union status and childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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