IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/coopap/v74y2019i3d10.1007_s10589-019-00134-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An efficient optimization approach for best subset selection in linear regression, with application to model selection and fitting in autoregressive time-series

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Di Gangi

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze)

  • M. Lapucci

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze)

  • F. Schoen

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze)

  • A. Sortino

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze)

Abstract

In this paper we consider two relevant optimization problems: the problem of selecting the best sparse linear regression model and the problem of optimally identifying the parameters of auto-regressive models based on time series data. Usually these problems, which although different are indeed related, are solved through a sequence of separate steps, alternating between choosing a subset of features and then finding a best fit regression. In this paper we propose to model both problems as mixed integer non linear optimization ones and propose numerical procedures based on state of the art optimization tools in order to solve both of them. The proposed approach has the advantage of considering both model selection as well as parameter estimation as a single optimization problem. Numerical experiments performed on widely available datasets as well as on synthetic ones confirm the high quality of our approach, both in terms of the quality of the resulting models and in terms of CPU time.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Di Gangi & M. Lapucci & F. Schoen & A. Sortino, 2019. "An efficient optimization approach for best subset selection in linear regression, with application to model selection and fitting in autoregressive time-series," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 74(3), pages 919-948, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:coopap:v:74:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10589-019-00134-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10589-019-00134-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10589-019-00134-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10589-019-00134-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miyashiro, Ryuhei & Takano, Yuichi, 2015. "Mixed integer second-order cone programming formulations for variable selection in linear regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(3), pages 721-731.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    3. Adil Bagirov & Conny Clausen & Michael Kohler, 2010. "An algorithm for the estimation of a regression function by continuous piecewise linear functions," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 159-179, January.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-377, November.
    6. Toshiki Sato & Yuichi Takano & Ryuhei Miyashiro & Akiko Yoshise, 2016. "Feature subset selection for logistic regression via mixed integer optimization," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 865-880, July.
    7. Dimitris Bertsimas & Romy Shioda, 2009. "Algorithm for cardinality-constrained quadratic optimization," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-22, May.
    8. Xiaotong Shen & Wei Pan & Yunzhang Zhu & Hui Zhou, 2013. "On constrained and regularized high-dimensional regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(5), pages 807-832, October.
    9. M. J. Garside, 1971. "Some Computational Procedures for the Best Subset Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 20(1), pages 8-15, March.
    10. Zemin Zheng & Yingying Fan & Jinchi Lv, 2014. "High dimensional thresholded regression and shrinkage effect," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(3), pages 627-649, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Lapucci & Tommaso Levato & Marco Sciandrone, 2021. "Convergent Inexact Penalty Decomposition Methods for Cardinality-Constrained Problems," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 188(2), pages 473-496, February.
    2. Enrico Civitelli & Matteo Lapucci & Fabio Schoen & Alessio Sortino, 2021. "An effective procedure for feature subset selection in logistic regression based on information criteria," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 80(1), pages 1-32, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Long Wen & Chang Liu & Haiyan Song, 2019. "Forecasting tourism demand using search query data: A hybrid modelling approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 309-329, May.
    2. Rice, William L. & Park, So Young & Pan, Bing & Newman, Peter, 2019. "Forecasting campground demand in US national parks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 424-438.
    3. Schipfer, Fabian & Kranzl, Lukas & Olsson, Olle & Lamers, Patrick, 2020. "The European wood pellets for heating market - Price developments, trade and market efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Enrico Civitelli & Matteo Lapucci & Fabio Schoen & Alessio Sortino, 2021. "An effective procedure for feature subset selection in logistic regression based on information criteria," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 80(1), pages 1-32, September.
    5. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Sasikiran Kandula & Jeffrey Shaman, 2019. "Reappraising the utility of Google Flu Trends," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Mamadou-Diéne Diop & Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2023. "Multiscale Agricultural Commodities Forecasting Using Wavelet-SARIMA Process," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 1-40, March.
    8. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    9. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Shafiqah Azman & Dharini Pathmanathan & Aerambamoorthy Thavaneswaran, 2022. "Forecasting the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies in the Presence of COVID-19 with the State Space Model and Kalman Filter," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-15, September.
    11. Andrés Gómez & Oleg A. Prokopyev, 2021. "A Mixed-Integer Fractional Optimization Approach to Best Subset Selection," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 551-565, May.
    12. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844.
    13. Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2019. "Density tourism demand forecasting revisited," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-392.
    14. Han Lin Shang, 2017. "Reconciling Forecasts of Infant Mortality Rates at National and Sub-National Levels: Grouped Time-Series Methods," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 55-84, February.
    15. Ben-Ameur, Walid & Neto, José, 2022. "New bounds for subset selection from conic relaxations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 425-438.
    16. Ghufran Ahmad & Furqan Ahmed & Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Javed Muhammad & Syeda Hira Fatima & Aamer Ikram & Hajo Zeeb, 2021. "Evaluating data-driven methods for short-term forecasts of cumulative SARS-CoV2 cases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Lange, Steffen & Pütz, Peter & Kopp, Thomas, 2018. "Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 123-133.
    18. Diaz-Emparanza, Ignacio, 2014. "Numerical distribution functions for seasonal unit root tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 237-247.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    20. Ryuta Tamura & Ken Kobayashi & Yuichi Takano & Ryuhei Miyashiro & Kazuhide Nakata & Tomomi Matsui, 2019. "Mixed integer quadratic optimization formulations for eliminating multicollinearity based on variance inflation factor," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 431-446, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:coopap:v:74:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10589-019-00134-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.