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Climate change, air conditioning, and urbanization—evidence from daily household electricity consumption data in China

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Listed:
  • Jian Cui

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Lunyu Xie

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Xinye Zheng

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

Energy consumption is a chief contributor to climate change, which increases as households use more air conditioning (AC) in response to climate change. As such, climate change–induced energy consumption is expected to increase more drastically in fast-emerging economies, where the rapidly increasing household income and urbanization promote the large-scale adoption of ACs. Based on data on daily household electricity consumption in the Zhejiang Province of China, this study estimates the household temperature response functions. In particular, we consider urban and rural households with and without AC to chart their various cooling demand and consumption behavior, typically indicated by U-shaped temperature-response functions. Compared to rural households and those without AC, urban households and those with AC exhibit steeper response functions at both high and low temperatures. Based on these estimates, we simulate the household electricity consumption under climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The simulation results reveal that (1) under constant urbanization and AC adoption rates, the electricity consumption in the residential sector will increase by 5.04–16.37% because of climate change; (2) as the AC adoption rate increases from 82.50 to 95.00% in urban areas and from 74.40 to 85.00% in rural areas, the household electricity consumption in Zhejiang Province will further increase by 0.52–1.05%; (3) combined with the increase of urbanization from 68.73 to 80.00%, the increase rate of annual electricity consumption of the residential sector will further rise to 25.60–55.79%. These findings highlight the vicious cycle of climate change and cooling along with the challenges encountered by electricity grids.

Suggested Citation

  • Jian Cui & Lunyu Xie & Xinye Zheng, 2023. "Climate change, air conditioning, and urbanization—evidence from daily household electricity consumption data in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03589-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03589-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Air conditioning; Climate change; Electricity consumption; Household temperature response function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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