IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v167y2021i3d10.1007_s10584-021-03204-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau

Author

Listed:
  • Huizhao Yang

    (Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Sailesh Ranjitkar

    (Kunming Institute of Botany
    N.Gene Solution of Natural Innovation
    Mid-Western University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science)

  • Wenxuan Xu

    (Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Lei Han

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jianbo Yang

    (Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Liqing Wu

    (Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jianchu Xu

    (Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Kunming Institute of Botany
    East and Central Asia Regional Office, World Agroforestry (ICRAF))

Abstract

Climate variability and changes threaten agriculture. In response, farmers have been forced to adjust farming practices according to locally available options. Ethnoecological knowledge of surrounding environmental events inform such adjustments. This study aims to explore observed changes in the crop calendar and changes in crop yield as response to climatic variability to support adjusting the local crop calendar. Interviews with local leaders and group discussions with farmers were organized. Climatic indices such as growing degree days (GDD) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) were calculated and regressed with crop production data (1988–2017) from Taxkorgan County of Xinjiang, China, using the partial least square regression (PLS) technique. Survey data revealed that the sowing dates of important crops began earlier than previous decades. Spatial data showed that the growing season advanced 3.2 days per decade. PLS results suggest that GDD and ETc significantly affect crop yield. GDD during the growth period had a significant positive impact, indicating that recent warming is beneficial for crop yields in these regions. ETc during the growth period mostly had a negative impact, suggesting the need for ample water to improve crop yields in the context of further warming. The current shift in sowing is corroborated by early heat accumulation, and crop calendar adjustments can reasonably increase yields. Our results are applicable to agricultural decisions at the farm level following site-specific fieldwork. Optimal planting dates can be determined by combining results from our study and other suitable farming practices to strengthen the resilience of local ecological calendars to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Huizhao Yang & Sailesh Ranjitkar & Wenxuan Xu & Lei Han & Jianbo Yang & Liqing Wu & Jianchu Xu, 2021. "Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03204-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03204-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03204-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03204-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Josep M. Antó & José Luis Martí & Jaume Casals & Paul Bou-Habib & Paula Casal & Marc Fleurbaey & Howard Frumkin & Manel Jiménez-Morales & Jacint Jordana & Carla Lancelotti & Humberto Llavador & Lela M, 2021. "The Planetary Wellbeing Initiative: Pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals in Higher Education," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Gillian Rose & Tom Osborne & Helen Greatrex & Tim Wheeler, 2016. "Impact of progressive global warming on the global-scale yield of maize and soybean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 417-428, February.
    3. Jordan R. Mayor & Nathan J. Sanders & Aimée T. Classen & Richard D. Bardgett & Jean-Christophe Clément & Alex Fajardo & Sandra Lavorel & Maja K. Sundqvist & Michael Bahn & Chelsea Chisholm & Ellen Cie, 2017. "Elevation alters ecosystem properties across temperate treelines globally," Nature, Nature, vol. 542(7639), pages 91-95, February.
    4. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 105-124.
    5. Gillian Rose & Tom Osborne & Helen Greatrex & Tim Wheeler, 2016. "Impact of progressive global warming on the global-scale yield of maize and soybean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 417-428, February.
    6. Louise Beveridge & Stephen Whitfield & Andy Challinor, 2018. "Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 475-489, April.
    7. Sejabaledi A. Rankoana, 2016. "Perceptions of Climate Change and the Potential for Adaptation in a Rural Community in Limpopo Province, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-10, August.
    8. Alistair W. R. Seddon & Marc Macias-Fauria & Peter R. Long & David Benz & Kathy J. Willis, 2016. "Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 531(7593), pages 229-232, March.
    9. Sailesh Ranjitkar & Dengpan Bu & Mark Wijk & Ying Ma & Lu Ma & Lianshen Zhao & Jianmin Shi & Chousheng Liu & Jianchu Xu, 2020. "Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 637-652, August.
    10. Huizhao Yang & Sailesh Ranjitkar & Deli Zhai & Micai Zhong & Stefanie Daniela Goldberg & Muhammad Asad Salim & Zhenghong Wang & Yi Jiang & Jianchu Xu, 2019. "Role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Seasonal Calendars in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Jianchu Xu & R. Grumbine, 2014. "Integrating local hybrid knowledge and state support for climate change adaptation in the Asian Highlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 93-104, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated Agricultural Sensitivity and Adaptability to Rising Temperatures across Regions and Sectors in China," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Mariola Staniak & Ewa Szpunar-Krok & Anna Kocira, 2023. "Responses of Soybean to Selected Abiotic Stresses—Photoperiod, Temperature and Water," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, January.
    3. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Zhao, Jin & Yang, Xiaoguang & Liu, Zhijuan & Pullens, Johannes W.M. & Chen, Ji & Marek, Gary W. & Chen, Yong & Lv, Shuo & Sun, Shuang, 2020. "Greater maize yield improvements in low/unstable yield zones through recommended nutrient and water inputs in the main cropping regions, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    5. Yuki Ishikawa Ishiwata & Jun Furuya, 2020. "Evaluating the Contribution of Soybean Rust- Resistant Cultivars to Soybean Production and the Soybean Market in Brazil: A Supply and Demand Model Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Ting Wang & Rongzhen Zhong & Daowei Zhou, 2020. "Temporal–Spatial Distribution of Risky Sites for Feeding Cattle in China Based on Temperature/Humidity Index," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
    7. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Yan Chen & Xiaohong Chen & Hongshan Ai & Xiaoqing Tan, 2022. "Temperature and Migration Intention: Evidence from the Unified National Graduate Entrance Examination in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-23, August.
    9. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2020. "Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output," Working Papers 2003E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    10. Kung, Chih-Chun & Wu, Tao, 2021. "Influence of water allocation on bioenergy production under climate change: A stochastic mathematical programming approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    11. Yoro Diallo & Sébastien Marchand & Etienne Espagne, 2019. "Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture," CIRED Working Papers halshs-02080285, HAL.
    12. Shulin Chen & Zhenghao Zhu & Xiaotong Liu & Li Yang, 2022. "Variation in Vegetation and Its Driving Force in the Pearl River Delta Region of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-15, August.
    13. Chen, Xiaoguang, 2016. "Economic potential of biomass supply from crop residues in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 141-149.
    14. Yuquan W. Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Mark Musumba & Bruce A. McCarl & Xiaokun Gu & Yuanfei Zhou & Zhengwei Cao & Qiang Li, 2018. "The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Seungki Lee & Yongjie Ji & GianCarlo Moschini, 2021. "Agricultural Innovation and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Genetically Engineered Maize," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp616, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    16. Yuhao Jin & Han Zhang & Yuchao Yan & Peitong Cong, 2020. "A Semi-Parametric Geographically Weighted Regression Approach to Exploring Driving Factors of Fractional Vegetation Cover: A Case Study of Guangdong," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    17. Emelia Miller, 2022. "Well-being Monism Defended," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 3407-3427, October.
    18. Shuai Chen & Xiaoguang Chen & Jintao Xu, 2016. "Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 191-205, September.
    19. Yong Liu & Jorge Ruiz-Menjivar & Junbiao Zhang, 2023. "Do soil nutrient management practices improve climate resilience? Empirical evidence from rice farmers in central China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 10029-10054, September.
    20. Kung, Chih-Chun & Cao, Xiaoyong & Choi, Yongrok & Kung, Shan-Shan, 2019. "A stochastic analysis of cropland utilization and resource allocation under climate change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03204-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.