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Temperatures across Europe: evidence of time trends

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra)

  • Laura Sauci

    (Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

Abstract

This paper deals with the analysis of the temperatures in a group of 29 stations located in twelve European countries by looking at the coefficients in a linear time trend regression model and allowing for long memory patterns in the error term. The results indicate that long memory is present in practically all cases, and the time trend coefficients are statistically significant in the majority of the cases implying evidence of increasing warming trends. This pattern is particularly noticeable in the case of several stations located across Italy and France, which might be related with micro climates affecting these regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2019. "Temperatures across Europe: evidence of time trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 355-364, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:157:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02568-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02568-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Rea & Marco Reale & Jennifer Brown, 2011. "Long memory in temperature reconstructions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 247-265, August.
    2. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series," Faculty Working Papers 09/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Baillie, Richard T. & Chung, Sang-Kuck, 2002. "Modeling and forecasting from trend-stationary long memory models with applications to climatology," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 215-226.
    5. Bunde, Armin & Havlin, Shlomo & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Schellnhuber, Hans-Joachim, 2001. "Long term persistence in the atmosphere: global laws and tests of climate models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 255-267.
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