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Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Vally Koubi

    (ETH Zurich, Zurich and University of Bern)

  • Sebastian Stoll

    (Eawag)

  • Gabriele Spilker

    (University of Salzburg)

Abstract

While climate change is projected to increase displacement of people, knowledge on this issue remains limited and fragmented. In his paper we focus on the micro-level and study the effects of individual perceptions of different types of environmental events (i.e., sudden/short-term vs. slow-onset/long-term) on migration decisions. Our results based on newly collected micro-level survey data from Vietnam shows that while slow-onset environmental events, such as droughs, significantly decrease the likelihood of migration, short-term events, such as floods, are positively related to migration, although not in a statistically significant way. When contrasting individual level perceptions with actual climatic events we observe that migrants and non-migrants perceive both long-term as well as sudden-onset environmental events in different ways. While non-migrants are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness of events such as floods and hurricanes, it is the migrants who are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness in the case of droughts.

Suggested Citation

  • Vally Koubi & Sebastian Stoll & Gabriele Spilker, 2016. "Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 439-451, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1767-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1767-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Katrin Millock & Cees Withagen, 2021. "Climate and Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 10, pages 309-341, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Martina Angela Caretta & Valeria Fanghella & Pam Rittelmeyer & Jaishri Srinivasan & Prajjwal K. Panday & Jagadish Parajuli & Ritu Priya & E. B. Uday Bhaskar Reddy & Cydney Kate Seigerman & Aditi Mukhe, 2023. "Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes? A meta-review of existing evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Baronchelli, Adelaide & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2022. "Temperature shocks, rice production, and migration in Vietnamese households," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2021. "Tropical Storms and Temporary Migration in Vietnam," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 1107-1142, December.
    5. Schauf, Andrew & Oh, Poong, 2021. "Adaptation strategies and collective dynamics of extraction in networked commons of bistable resources," SocArXiv wmtqk, Center for Open Science.
    6. Florence De Longueville & Pierre Ozer & François Gemenne & Sabine Henry & Ole Mertz & Jonas Ø. Nielsen, 2020. "Comparing climate change perceptions and meteorological data in rural West Africa to improve the understanding of household decisions to migrate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 123-141, May.
    7. András Darabant & Birgit Habermann & Kibruyesfa Sisay & Christopher Thurnher & Yonas Worku & Selamawit Damtew & Mara Lindtner & Leisa Burrell & Abrham Abiyu, 2020. "Farmers’ perceptions and matching climate records jointly explain adaptation responses in four communities around Lake Tana, Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 481-497, November.
    8. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin, 2020. "Do people accurately report droughts? Comparison of instrument-measured and national survey data in Kenya," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1143-1160, October.
    9. David J. Kaczan & Jennifer Orgill-Meyer, 2020. "The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 281-300, February.
    10. K. Shuvo Bakar & Huidong Jin, 2018. "Spatio-temporal quantitative links between climatic extremes and population flows: a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 139-153, May.
    11. Tal Ulus & Ronnie Ellenblum, 2021. "How long and how strong must a climatic anomaly be in order to evoke a social transformation? Historical and contemporaneous case studies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Quan-Hoang Vuong & Tam-Tri Le & Quy Van Khuc & Quang-Loc Nguyen & Minh-Hoang Nguyen, 2022. "Escaping from Air Pollution: Exploring the Psychological Mechanism behind the Emergence of Internal Migration Intention among Urban Residents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-22, September.

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