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Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning

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  • Simon Parkinson
  • Ned Djilali

Abstract

An electricity generation planning framework incorporating adaptation to hydro-climatic change is presented. The planning framework internalizes risks and opportunities associated with alternative hydro-climate scenarios to identify a long-term system configuration robust to uncertainty. The implications of a robust response to hydro-climatic change are demonstrated for the electricity system in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Adaptation strategy is crucial in this region, mainly due to the large contribution of hydropower resources to regional electricity supply. Analysis of results from basin-scale hydrologic models driven with downscaled global climate data suggest that shifts in regional streamflow characteristics by the year 2050 are likely to increase BC’s annual hydropower potential by more than 10 %. These effects combined with an estimated decrease in electricity demand by 2 % due to warmer temperatures, could provide an additional 11 TWh of annual energy. Uncertainties in these projected climate impacts indicate technology configurations offering significant long-term operational flexibility will be needed to ensure system reliability. Results from the regional long-term electricity generation model incorporating adaptive capacity show the significant shifts required in the non-hydro capacity mix to ensure system robustness cause an increase in cumulative operating costs of between 1 and 7 %. Analysis of technology configurations involving high-penetrations of wind generation highlights interactions between flexibility requirements occurring over multiple temporal scales. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Simon Parkinson & Ned Djilali, 2015. "Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 475-489, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:130:y:2015:i:4:p:475-489
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1359-5
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    3. English, J. & Niet, T. & Lyseng, B. & Palmer-Wilson, K. & Keller, V. & Moazzen, I. & Pitt, L. & Wild, P. & Rowe, A., 2017. "Impact of electrical intertie capacity on carbon policy effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 571-581.
    4. Chassin, David P. & Behboodi, Sahand & Djilali, Ned, 2018. "Optimal subhourly electricity resource dispatch under multiple price signals with high renewable generation availability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 262-271.
    5. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Zamanipour, Behzad & Ghadaksaz, Hesam & Keppo, Ilkka & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2023. "Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    7. Khan, Zarrar & Linares, Pedro & García-González, Javier, 2017. "Integrating water and energy models for policy driven applications. A review of contemporary work and recommendations for future developments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1123-1138.
    8. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    9. Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Turner, Sean W.D. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Ríos-Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Hejazi, Mohamad I. & Kober, Tom & Álvarez-Espinosa, Andrés C. & Romero-Otalora, Germán D. & van der Zwaan, , 2019. "Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-188.
    10. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    11. Pablo E. Carvajal & Gabrial Anandarajah & Yacob Mulugetta & Olivier Dessens, 2017. "Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 611-624, October.
    12. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    13. Parkinson, Simon C. & Makowski, Marek & Krey, Volker & Sedraoui, Khaled & Almasoud, Abdulrahman H. & Djilali, Ned, 2018. "A multi-criteria model analysis framework for assessing integrated water-energy system transformation pathways," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 477-486.

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