IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/cejnor/v25y2017i3d10.1007_s10100-016-0458-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products

Author

Listed:
  • Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

    (Poznań University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the classical version of the newsvendor problem (NP) under complete uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty with unknown probabilities). So far, NP has been analyzed under uncertainty with known probabilities or under uncertainty with partial information (probabilities known incompletely). The novel approach is designed for the sale of new, innovative products, where it is quite complicated to define probabilities or even probability-like quantities, because there are no data available for forecasting the upcoming demand via statistical analysis. The new procedure described in the contribution is based on a hybrid of Hurwicz and Bayes decision rules. It takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk (measured by coefficients of optimism and pessimism) and the dispersion (asymmetry, range, frequency of extremes values) of payoffs connected with particular order quantities. It does not require any information about the probability distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2017. "Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 25(3), pages 561-585, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:25:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10100-016-0458-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-016-0458-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10100-016-0458-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10100-016-0458-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khouja, Moutaz, 1999. "The single-period (news-vendor) problem: literature review and suggestions for future research," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 537-553, October.
    2. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2012. "Decision Theory Under Ambiguity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 234-270, April.
    3. Seymour Kaplan & Norman N. Barish, 1967. "Decision-Making Allowing for Uncertainty of Future Investment Opportunities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(10), pages 569-577, June.
    4. Bernard Walliser, 2008. "Cognitive Economics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-71347-0, September.
    5. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    6. Omar Besbes & Alp Muharremoglu, 2013. "On Implications of Demand Censoring in the Newsvendor Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1407-1424, June.
    7. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Fulvio Fontini, 2005. "Choices Under Ambiguity With Familiar And Unfamiliar Outcomes," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 195-207, March.
    8. Clemens Puppe & Karl Schlag, 2009. "Choice under complete uncertainty when outcome spaces are state dependent," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 1-16, January.
    9. U Benzion & Y Cohen & T Shavit, 2010. "The newsvendor problem with unknown distribution," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1022-1031, June.
    10. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
    11. Qin, Yan & Wang, Ruoxuan & Vakharia, Asoo J. & Chen, Yuwen & Seref, Michelle M.H., 2011. "The newsvendor problem: Review and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 361-374, September.
    12. Gilboa,Itzhak, 2009. "Theory of Decision under Uncertainty," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517324.
    13. Wang, Charles X. & Webster, Scott, 2009. "The loss-averse newsvendor problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-105, February.
    14. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Extreme events and entropy: A multiple quantile utility model," Post-Print hal-00685405, HAL.
    15. Catalin Angelo Ioan & Gina Ioan, 2011. "A A method of choice of the best alternative in the multiple solutions case in the Games Theory," The Journal of Accounting and Management, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1, pages 5-8, May.
    16. Basili, Marcello & Chateauneuf, Alain & Fontini, Fulvio, 2008. "Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 485-491, October.
    17. Marcello Basili, 2006. "A Rational Decision Rule with Extreme Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1721-1728, December.
    18. Massimo Marinacci, 2002. "Probabilistic Sophistication and Multiple Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 755-764, March.
    19. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    20. Ayşe Kocabıyıkoğlu & Ioana Popescu, 2011. "An Elasticity Approach to the Newsvendor with Price-Sensitive Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 301-312, April.
    21. Guo, Peijun & Ma, Xiuyan, 2014. "Newsvendor models for innovative products with one-shot decision theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 523-536.
    22. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    23. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2009. "Decision theory under uncertainty," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00429573, HAL.
    24. Officer, R.R. & Anderson, Jock R., 1968. "Risk, Uncertainty and Farm Management Decisions," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 36(01), pages 1-17, March.
    25. Charles X. Wang & Scott Webster & Sidong Zhang, 2012. "Newsvendor Models with Alternative Risk Preferences Within Expected Utility Theory and Prospect Theory Frameworks," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Tsan-Ming Choi (ed.), Handbook of Newsvendor Problems, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 177-196, Springer.
    26. Kamburowski, Jerzy, 2014. "The distribution-free newsboy problem under the worst-case and best-case scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 106-112.
    27. Hayashi, Takashi, 2008. "Regret aversion and opportunity dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 242-268, March.
    28. Gregory A. Godfrey & Warren B. Powell, 2001. "An Adaptive, Distribution-Free Algorithm for the Newsvendor Problem with Censored Demands, with Applications to Inventory and Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(8), pages 1101-1112, August.
    29. Mustafa Doğru & A. Kok & G. Houtum, 2013. "Newsvendor characterizations for one-warehouse multi-retailer inventory systems with discrete demand under the balance assumption," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(3), pages 541-559, September.
    30. Peter C. Fishburn, 1984. "Foundations of Risk Measurement. I. Risk As Probable Loss," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 396-406, April.
    31. Vipul Agrawal & Sridhar Seshadri, 2000. "Impact of Uncertainty and Risk Aversion on Price and Order Quantity in the Newsvendor Problem," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 2(4), pages 410-423, July.
    32. Kmietowicz, ZW & Pearman, AD, 1984. "Decision theory, linear partial information and statistical dominance," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 391-399.
    33. H. Goto, 2013. "Multi-Item Newsvendor Problem With An Equality Resource Constraint," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 30(01), pages 1-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. A. Zapata & M. A. Caraballo & L. Monroy & A. M. Mármol, 2019. "Hurwicz’s criterion and the equilibria of duopoly models," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(4), pages 937-952, December.
    2. Marijana Zekić-Sušac & Rudolf Scitovski & Goran Lešaja, 2018. "CEJOR special issue of Croatian Operational Research Society," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(3), pages 531-534, September.
    3. Andrej Kastrin & Janez Povh & Lidija Zadnik Stirn & Janez Žerovnik, 2021. "Methodologies and applications for resilient global development from the aspect of SDI-SOR special issues of CJOR," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 29(3), pages 773-790, September.
    4. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2021. "The Assignment Problem in Human Resource Project Management under Uncertainty," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. M. J. Geiger & R. Vetschera, 2019. "Selected papers from the workshop of the GOR Working Group Decision Theory and Applications 2017," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(2), pages 283-285, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2019. "Project Net Present Value estimation under uncertainty," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(1), pages 179-197, March.
    2. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2015. "On a decision rule supported by a forecasting stage based on the decision maker’s coefficient of optimism," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 23(3), pages 579-594, September.
    3. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2018. "The Impact of the Structure of the Payoff Matrix on the Final Decision made Under Uncertainty," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 35(01), pages 1-27, February.
    4. Amit Kothiyal & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2014. "An experimental test of prospect theory for predicting choice under ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Georgalos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Dynamic decision making under ambiguity: An experimental investigation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 28-46.
    6. Burghart, Daniel R. & Epper, Thomas & Fehr, Ernst, 2015. "The Ambiguity Triangle: Uncovering Fundamental Patterns of Behavior Under Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 9150, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Enrica Carbone & Xueqi Dong & John Hey, 2017. "Elicitation of preferences under ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 87-102, April.
    8. Konstantinos Georgalos, 2019. "An experimental test of the predictive power of dynamic ambiguity models," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 51-83, August.
    9. Aurélien Baillon & Zhenxing Huang & Asli Selim & Peter P. Wakker, 2018. "Measuring Ambiguity Attitudes for All (Natural) Events," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1839-1858, September.
    10. Jörg Stoye, 2011. "Statistical decisions under ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 129-148, February.
    11. Diederik Aerts & Emmanuel Haven & Sandro Sozzo, 2018. "A proposal to extend expected utility in a quantum probabilistic framework," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 1079-1109, June.
    12. Andrew J. Keith & Darryl K. Ahner, 2021. "A survey of decision making and optimization under uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 300(2), pages 319-353, May.
    13. Jordi Grau-Moya & Pedro A Ortega & Daniel A Braun, 2016. "Decision-Making under Ambiguity Is Modulated by Visual Framing, but Not by Motor vs. Non-Motor Context. Experiments and an Information-Theoretic Ambiguity Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    14. Heyen, Daniel & Goeschl, Timo & Wiesenfarth , Boris, 2015. "Risk Assessment under Ambiguity: Precautionary Learning vs. Research Pessimism," Working Papers 0605, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    15. Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Eliciting ambiguity with mixing bets," Papers 1902.07447, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    16. Carvalho, M., 2012. "Static vs Dynamic Auctions with Ambiguity Averse Bidders," Other publications TiSEM 1f078e67-88ec-46e3-ae18-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Marcello Basili, 2006. "A Rational Decision Rule with Extreme Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1721-1728, December.
    18. Federica Ceron & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2020. "Recursive objective and subjective multiple priors," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02563318, HAL.
    19. Matthias Lang, 2017. "First-Order and Second-Order Ambiguity Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1254-1269, April.
    20. Tommi Ekholm & Erin Baker, 2022. "Multiple Beliefs, Dominance and Dynamic Consistency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 529-540, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:25:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10100-016-0458-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.