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Emissionswirkungen der 2021 reformierten Kfz-Steuer: Eine empirische Analyse
[Emissions effects of the german vehicle tax: an empirical analysis]

Author

Listed:
  • Joschka Flintz

    (Ruhr Universität Bochum
    RWI Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

  • Manuel Frondel

    (Ruhr Universität Bochum
    RWI Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

  • Marco Horvath

    (RWI Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Im Jahr 2021 wurde die emissionsabhängige Komponente der Kfz-Steuer angepasst und progressiv gestaltet, sodass sich die Steuerbelastung für Fahrzeuge mit hoher Emissionsintensität überproportional erhöht hat. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert dieser Beitrag die Effektivität der reformierten Kfz-Steuer in Bezug auf ihre Lenkungswirkung und ihr Einsparpotential an Kohlendioxid (CO2) mit Hilfe des Nachfragemodells von Berry et al. (1995). Dieses Modell ermöglicht eine realitätsnähere Darstellung der Nachfrageseite als Conditional- oder Nested-Logit-Modelle. Unsere Schätzergebnisse zeigen, dass infolge der Reform jährlich ungefähr 21.000 Autos weniger verkauft werden dürften, die mittlere CO2-Intensität sich um 0,74 g/km verringert und der jährliche CO2-Ausstoß neu gekaufter Fahrzeuge um rund 60.000 t sinken könnte. Diese geringen Effekte sind intuitiv verständlich: Eine durchschnittliche Steuererhöhung von rund 11 € pro Jahr entfaltet nicht die Lenkungswirkung, derer es bedarf, um die Emissionen substanziell zu senken. Unsere Simulationsergebnisse einer fiktiven Kfz-Besteuerung mit stärker progressiven Steuersätzen, die eine mittlere Steuererhöhung von ca. 90 € zur Folge hätte, zeigen: Dies würde deutlich stärkere Effekte haben und die durchschnittlichen spezifischen CO2-Emissionen neuer Autos um gut 5 g/km senken sowie die Anzahl an Neuzulassungen um rund 195.000 Pkw. Dadurch könnten jährlich rund 450.000 t CO2 eingespart werden. Verglichen mit den jährlichen Emissionen der Autoflotte in Deutschland von ca. 100 Mio. Tonnen wären aber selbst die Effekte der fiktiven Kfz-Besteuerung mit höheren Steuersätzen recht begrenzt.

Suggested Citation

  • Joschka Flintz & Manuel Frondel & Marco Horvath, 2022. "Emissionswirkungen der 2021 reformierten Kfz-Steuer: Eine empirische Analyse [Emissions effects of the german vehicle tax: an empirical analysis]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(3), pages 255-276, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:16:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11943-022-00310-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-022-00310-w
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zulassungsteuer; Automobilflotte; Spezifische CO2-Emissionen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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