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Endogenizing the sticks and carrots: modeling possible perverse effects of counterterrorism measures

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  • Vicki Bier
  • Kjell Hausken

Abstract

We present a novel model capable of distinguishing between the effects of negative incentives (“sticks”) and positive incentives (“carrots”) for influencing the behavior of intelligent and adaptable adversaries. Utilities are developed for the defender and the terrorist. The defender is assumed to have a unit cost of defense, and unit costs of providing negative and positive incentives. The terrorist likewise has a unit cost of attack, which may either increase or decrease if the defender provides negative incentives, and enjoys a unit benefit of positive incentives. We show that the potential for perverse effects of counterterrorism (e.g., the emergence of hatred) can cause defenders to rely on positive incentives and decrease their reliance on negative incentives at equilibrium, with use of negative incentives completely eliminated in situations where these would be moderately effective when applied. With low potential for perverse effects of counterterrorism, the defender should rely on effective negative incentives. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

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  • Vicki Bier & Kjell Hausken, 2011. "Endogenizing the sticks and carrots: modeling possible perverse effects of counterterrorism measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 39-59, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:186:y:2011:i:1:p:39-59:10.1007/s10479-010-0833-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-010-0833-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Kjell Hausken, 2019. "Principal–Agent Theory, Game Theory, and the Precautionary Principle," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 105-127, June.
    2. Kjell Hausken, 2020. "Governmental combat of migration between competing terrorist organisations," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 30(3), pages 21-46.
    3. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Sandler, Todd, 2023. "Politically influenced counterterrorism policy and welfare efficiency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Abhra Roy & Jomon Paul, 2013. "Terrorism deterrence in a two country framework: strategic interactions between R&D, defense and pre-emption," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 211(1), pages 399-432, December.
    5. Hamid Mohtadi, 2017. "Risk‐Mitigating Policies and Adversarial Behavior: Case of Backlash," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 459-470, March.
    6. Di Wu & Xiangbin Yan & Rui Peng & Shaomin Wu, 2020. "Optimal defence-attack strategies between one defender and two attackers," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(11), pages 1830-1846, November.
    7. Gao, Kaiye & Yan, Xiangbin & Liu, Xiang-dong & Peng, Rui, 2019. "Object defence of a single object with preventive strike of random effect," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 209-219.
    8. Julei Fu & Duoyong Sun & Jian Chai & Jin Xiao & Shouyang Wang, 2015. "The “six-element” analysis method for the research on the characteristics of terrorist activities," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 17-35, November.
    9. Wu, Di & Yan, Xiangbin & Peng, Rui & Wu, Shaomin, 2020. "Risk-attitude-based defense strategy considering proactive strike, preventive strike and imperfect false targets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. João Ricardo Faria & Andreas Novak & Aniruddha Bagchi & Timothy Mathews, 2020. "The Refugee Game: The Relationship between Individual Security Expenditures and Collective Security," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, June.
    11. Hamid Mohtadi & Bryan Weber, 2019. "Terrorism risk and optimal policy response: theory and empirics," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 449-468, October.
    12. Jaspersen, Johannes G. & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2020. "On the learning patterns and adaptive behavior of terrorist organizations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 221-234.
    13. F He & J Zhuang, 2012. "Modelling ‘contracts’ between a terrorist group and a government in a sequential game," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 63(6), pages 790-809, June.
    14. Wu, Di & Xiao, Hui & Peng, Rui, 2018. "Object defense with preventive strike and false targets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 76-80.
    15. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    16. João Ricardo Faria & Daniel Arce, 2021. "The Path of Terror Attacks," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-11, April.
    17. Wang, Shuliang & Gu, Xifeng & Luan, Shengyang & Zhao, Mingwei, 2021. "Resilience analysis of interdependent critical infrastructure systems considering deep learning and network theory," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    18. Song, Yu & Chen, Bo & Hou, Na & Yang, Yi, 2022. "Terrorist attacks and oil prices: A time-varying causal relationship analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    19. Hausken, Kjell, 2019. "Governmental combat of the dynamics of multiple competing terrorist organizations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 33-55.
    20. Bagchi, Aniruddha & Paul, Jomon A., 2021. "National security vs. human rights: A game theoretic analysis of the tension between these objectives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 790-805.

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