IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sos/sosjrn/200213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetries and Macroeconomic Shocks: The Pre-Crisis Period and Evidence for Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Naib ALAKBAROV
  • Utku UTKULU

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to discover the underlying structure of the debt crisis and examine the cross-country differences by analyzing the asymmetric supply and demand shocks for the member and candidate countries of the European Union for the pre-crisis period. Following the path of Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1993, 1997) and Blanchard and Quah (1989), the calculations show us that Greece has the largest supply shocks, while Turkey has the largest demand shocks. By looking at the impulse response functions associated with the SVARs, it is clear that Greece has the lowest adjustment speed to demand disturbances followed by the United Kingdom. Those countries which experienced debt crises in the EMU, seemed to have big supply and demand shocks and compared to other member countries the adjustment speed of their economies to these shocks are slower.

Suggested Citation

  • Naib ALAKBAROV & Utku UTKULU, 2020. "Asymmetries and Macroeconomic Shocks: The Pre-Crisis Period and Evidence for Europe," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(44).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:200213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/1061363
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dellas, Harris & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "An optimum-currency-area odyssey," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1117-1137, November.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    4. Paul DE GRAUWE & Hilde Heens, 1993. "Real Exchange Rate Variability in Monetary Unions," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1993015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Peter Mikek, 2009. "Shocks to New and Old Europe: How Symmetric?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 811-830, September.
    6. Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2008. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-31.
    7. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Lessons from the Eurocrisis for East Asian Monetary Relations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 405-418, April.
    8. Campos, Nauro F. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2016. "Core and Periphery in the European Monetary Union: Bayoumi and Eichengreen 25 years later," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 127-130.
    9. Peter Mikek, 2009. "Shocks to New and Old Europe: How Symmetric?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 811-830, September.
    10. Roland Vaubel, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 112(3), pages 429-470, September.
    11. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    12. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    13. Heiko Peters, 2006. "Theorie optimaler Währungsräume vor dem Hintergrund der EU-Erweiterung," List Forum Chapter, in: List Gesellschaft e.V. (ed.), List Forum Band 32, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 214-238, List Gesellschaft e.V..
    14. Tibor Scitovsky, 1967. "The Theory of Balance-of-Payments Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 523-523.
    15. Paul De Grauwe (ed.), 2001. "The Political Economy of Monetary Union," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2131.
    16. Jennifer C. Martin-Das, 2002. "The European Monetary Union in a Public Choice Perspective," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2276.
    17. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    18. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2015. "Shocking aspects of monetary union: the vulnerability of regions in Euroland," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 907-934.
    19. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    20. Tamim Bayoumi & Alun Thomas, 1995. "Relative Prices and Economic Adjustment in the United States and the European Union: A Real Story about EMU," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 108-133, March.
    21. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-488, September.
    22. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2005. "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-74, March.
    23. Benjamin J. Cohen, 1993. "Beyond Emu: The Problem Of Sustainability," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 187-203, July.
    24. Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriach, 2004. "Shocking Aspects of European Enlargement," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 36-57, September.
    25. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    26. Kim, Yoonbai & Chow, Hwee Kwan, 2003. "Optimum currency area in Europe: an alternative assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 297-304, December.
    27. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zhipeng & Zhang, Mei & Ageli, Mohammed Moosa, 2022. "Revisiting resource curse hypothesis and sustainable development: Evaluating the role of financial risk for USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schuster, Florian, 2023. "Sovereign spreads, central bank collateral frameworks, and periphery premia in the Eurozone," Papers 277915, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    2. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "Iluzii financiare, Partea întâi [Financial Illusions, Part 1]," MPRA Paper 101201, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    3. Gilson, Nathalie alias Natacha & Labondance, Fabien, 2013. "Synchronisation des chocs d’offre et de demande en Europe – Un après-euro ou une après-crise des subprimes ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 155-189, Septembre.
    4. Andrea Bonilla‐Bolaños, 2021. "A step further in the theory of regional integration: A look at the South American integration strategy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 845-873, July.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    7. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2015. "Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 7(2), pages 87-116, August.
    8. Saucedo Acosta Edgar J. & Rullán Rosanis Samantha, 2014. "Two Effects of the European Financial Crisis," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 46-60, September.
    9. Gammadigbé, Vigninou, 2013. "Endogénéité des critères d'une zone monétaire optimale: un réexamen [Endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria: a re-examination]," MPRA Paper 46727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Stefan Eichler & Alexander Karmann, 2011. "Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 935-954, November.
    11. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.
    12. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    14. Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien & Huchet-Bourdon, Marilyne, 2012. "Revisiting the core-periphery view of EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2382-2391.
    15. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    16. Schuster, Florian, 2023. "Spreads auf Staatsanleihezinsen, der EZB-Sicherheitenrahmen und Peripherieprämien in der Eurozone," Papers 277910, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    17. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Synchronisation des chocs d'offre et de demande dans la Communauté Economique des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO) [Synchronization of supply and demand shocks in the Economic Community of We," MPRA Paper 95291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "Identifying and measuring the contagion channels at work in the European financial crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-134.
    19. Ionuț JIANU, 2016. "A comprehensive view on the manifestations of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 207-224, Summer.
    20. Raoul Lättemäe, 2003. "EMU Accession Issues in Baltic Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17a, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply and Demand Shocks; Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Shocks; Adjustment Speeds; the EMU; Optimum Currency Area; Structural VAR (SVAR).;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:200213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aysen Sivrikaya (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sosyoekonomijournal.org/home.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.