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Herding Behavior and Stock Returns: An Exploratory Investigation

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  • Lillyn L. Teh
  • Werner F. M. de Bondt
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    Abstract

    We collect trading and ownership statistics for U.S. stocks between 1970 and 1989 and we study the cross-section of returns. In rational and frictionless markets, equity returns should not depend on asset turnover nor should they depend on owner identity. Yet, with market imperfections, crowd behavior may affect returns. We examine two types of herding: (i) conventional investing, and (ii) trading for non-informational reasons. Incomplete information models predict that conventional stocks command higher prices. Noise trader models predict that shares that are traded for non-informational reasons are more risky and sell for lower prices. We find evidence that supports both predictions, even if we control for beta, firm size, and the book-to-market ratio.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 133 (1997)
    Issue (Month): II (June)
    Pages: 293-324

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    Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:1997-ii-11

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    1. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    2. Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. Hardouvelis, G.A., 1988. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, And The Transitory Component Of Stock Prices," Papers fb-_88-38, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    4. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    5. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    6. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
    7. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
    8. Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 269-87, April.
    9. Gregory R. Duffee, 1992. "Trading volume and return reversals," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 192, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Paul Kupiec & Steven Sharpe, 1990. "Animal spirits, margin requirements, and stock price volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-98, December.
    12. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    13. Brennan, Michael J., 1993. "Agency and Asset Pricing," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt53k014sd, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    14. Shiller, 021Robert J. & Pound, John, 1989. "Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 47-66, August.
    15. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-52, October.
    17. Del Guercio, Diane, 1996. "The distorting effect of the prudent-man laws on institutional equity investments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 31-62, January.
    18. Hsieh, David A & Miller, Merton H, 1990. " Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, March.
    19. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    20. Neal,Larry, 1994. "The Rise of Financial Capitalism," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521457385.
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    Cited by:
    1. De Bondt, Werner F. M., 1998. "A portrait of the individual investor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 831-844, May.
    2. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Ferreira, Mario Pedro Leite, 2013. "Institutional industry herding: Intentional or spurious?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 192-214.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.

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