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Causality Between Revenues and Expenditures and the Size of the Federal Budget

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  • Paul R. Blackley

    (Le Moyne College)

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    Abstract

    Recent legislation has reduced federal tax rates and provided for indexation of the personal income tax against inflation. These changes are in part designed to reduce the relative size of government in the U.S. economy. Testing assump tions behind this proposition, this article examines the causal relation between revenue and expenditure changes in explainingfederal budget growth. Statistical causality tests reveal that revenue growth generally precedes expenditure growth, confirming that growth in revenue capacity stimulates budget expan sion rather than deficit reduction. A trivariate causal model including GNP, however, suggests that both demand and supply factors are responsible for the budget's growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by in its journal Public Finance Review.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1986)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 139-156

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    Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:14:y:1986:i:2:p:139-156

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    Cited by:
    1. Michael Marlow & William Orzechowski, 1988. "Controlling leviathan through tax reduction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 237-245, September.
    2. M. Haider Hussain, 2005. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Pakistan," Macroeconomics 0509014, EconWPA.
    3. Abdur Chowdhury, 1988. "Expenditures and receipts in state and local government finances: Comment," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 277-285, December.
    4. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0103, Banco de Espa�a.
    5. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:420-432 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mohsen Mehrara & Abbas Ali Rezaei, 2014. "The Relationship between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure in Iran," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 171-182, March.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2005. "The government revenue and government expenditure nexus: empirical evidence from nine Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1203-1216, January.
    8. Jean-Claude Nachega & Ousmane Dore, 2000. "Budgetary Convergence in the WEAMU," IMF Working Papers 00/109, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Yaya Keho, 2010. "Spending Cuts or Tax Adjustments: How Can UEMOA Countries Control Their Budget Deficits?," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(3), pages 233-252, December.
    10. M. Haider Hussain, 2004. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 105-117, Jul-Dec.
    11. Michael Marlow & Neela Manage, 1988. "Expenditures and receipts in state and local government finances: Reply," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 287-290, December.

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