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Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation: The Case of Sierra Leone

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji
  • Jan Gottschalk
  • Mr. Ken Miyajima

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Sierra Leone using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) approach to help forecast inflation for operational purposes. Despite data limitations, the paper accurately models inflation in Sierra Leone. As economic theory predicts, domestic inflation is found to increase with higher oil prices, higher money supply, and nominal exchange rate depreciation. The paper then employs a historical decomposition approach to pinpoint the sources of a marked decline in inflation in 2006 and assesses its forecasting properties. Overall, the model serves as a useful addition to the toolkit for analyzing and forecasting inflation in countries with limited data availability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji & Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2008. "Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation: The Case of Sierra Leone," IMF Working Papers 2008/271, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/271
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Inflation Forecasting in Angola: A Fractional Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 91-104.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2010/135, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Tweneboah Senzu, Emmanuel, 2021. "Theoretically proposed policy instrument to address the negative effect of inflation inflow into positive macroeconomic growth: the case study of the Sierra Leone economy," MPRA Paper 110047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Patrick Enu & Emmanuel Dodzi K. Havi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation In Ghana: A Co integration Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(7), pages 95-110, July.
    5. Tweneboah Senzu, Emmanuel, 2020. "Theoretically proposed policy instrument to resolve the negative effect of inflation flow into a positive macroeconomic growth: the case of Sierra Leone economy," MPRA Paper 99402, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gurleen Kaur, 2021. "Inflation and Fiscal Deficit in India: An ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1553-1573, December.
    7. Abdullah Almounsor, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in Yemen: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2010/144, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 2011/057, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    WP; price level; central bank;
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