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Climate change and the institutional resilience of international river basins

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Author Info

  • Lucia De Stefano

    (Oregon State University)

  • James Duncan

    (Oregon State University)

  • Shlomi Dinar

    (Florida International University)

  • Kerstin Stahl

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Kenneth M Strzepek

    (University of Colorado at Boulder)

  • Aaron T Wolf

    (Oregon State University)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In the existing 276 international river basins, the increase in water variability projected by most climate change scenarios may present serious challenges to riparian states. This research maps the institutional resilience to water variability in transboundary basins and combines it with both historic and projected variability regimes, with the objective of identifying areas at potential risk of future hydropolitical tension. To do so, it combs existing international treaties for sources of institutional resilience and considers the coefficient of variation of runoff as a measure of past and future water variability. The study finds significant gaps in both the number of people and area covered by institutional stipulations to deal with variability in South America and Asia. At present, high potential risk for hydropolitical tensions associated with water variability is identified in 24 transboundary basins and seems to be concentrated mainly in northern and sub-Saharan Africa. By 2050, areas at greatest potential risk are more spatially dispersed and can be found in 61 international basins, and some of the potentially large impacts of climate change are projected to occur away from those areas currently under scrutiny. Understanding when and where to target capacity-building in transboundary river basins for greater resilience to change is critical. This study represents a step toward facilitating these efforts and informing further qualitative and quantitative research into the relationship between climate change, hydrological variability regimes, and institutional capacity for accommodating variability.

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    File URL: http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/49/1/193.abstract
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Peace Research Institute Oslo in its journal Journal of Peace Research.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 193-209

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    Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:193-209

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.prio.no/

    Related research

    Keywords: climate change; freshwater treaties; resilience; river basin organizations; transboundary; water variability;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2008. "Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 249-266, October.
    2. Dinar, Ariel & Blankespoor, Brian & Dinar, Shlomi & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2010. "Does precipitation and runoff variability affect treaty cooperation between states sharing international bilateral rivers?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2568-2581, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Dinar, Shlomi & Katz, David & De Stefano, Lucia & Blankespoor, Brian, 2014. "Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6916, The World Bank.
    2. Anita Milman & Lisa Bunclark & Declan Conway & William Adger, 2013. "Assessment of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change in transboundary river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 755-770, December.
    3. Harold Houba & Erik Ansink, 2013. "Sustainable Agreements on Stochastic River Flow," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-182/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Kirsty Lewis, 2014. "Climate science in climate security scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 11-22, March.
    5. Brian Blankespoor & Alan Basist & Ariel Dinar & Shlomi Dinar & Harold Houba & Neil Thomas, 2014. "Assessing the Economic and Political Impacts of Climate Change on International River Basins using Surface Wetness in the Zambezi and Mekong Basins," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-005/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Giorgos Kallis & Christos Zografos, 2014. "Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 69-82, March.
    7. Ansink, Erik & Weikard, Hans-Peter, 2013. "Composition properties in the river claims problem," MPRA Paper 51618, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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