Does precipitation and runoff variability affect treaty cooperation between states sharing international bilateral rivers?
AbstractElevated world temperatures, as forecasted by the 4th IPCC report, are expected to increase the hydrological cycle activity, leading to a change in precipitation patterns and increase in evapotranspiration. These in turn are expected to affect river runoff and water variability, depending on basin latitude. In this paper, we assess the impact of water supply variability on 'treaty cooperation' (defined here as the likelihood of treaty formation and number of treaties formed) between international bilateral river basin riparian states. The water variability measure that we use captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability. We employ additional control variables adopted from economic and international relations theories on international cooperation. The main results suggest that water supply variability in international bilateral basins creates an impetus for cooperation. Our results support an inverted U-shaped relationship between water supply variability and treaty cooperation. Similarly, interactions between the states in the form of diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation. Uneven economic power between the riparian states inhibits treaty cooperation. The geography variables we use are insignificant in all the estimated relationships.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.
Volume (Year): 69 (2010)
Issue (Month): 12 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon
International water Treaty Cooperation Precipitation Runoff Climate change;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ambec, S. & Sprumont, Y., 2000.
"Sharing a River,"
Cahiers de recherche
2000-08, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ambec, Stefan & Sprumont, Yves, 2000. "Sharing a River," Cahiers de recherche 0006, GREEN.
- Ambec, S. & Sprumont, Y., 2000. "Sharing a River," Papers 00-06, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
- AMBEC, Steve & SPRUMONT, Yves, 2000. "Sharing a River," Cahiers de recherche 2000-08, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ambec, Stefan & Sprumont, Yves, 2002. "Sharing a River," Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
- Young, Oran R., 1989. "The politics of international regime formation: managing natural resources and the environment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 349-375, June.
- Congleton, Roger D, 1992. "Political Institutions and Pollution Control," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 412-21, August.
- Klaus Abbink & Lars Moller & Sarah O’Hara, 2010. "Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 45(2), pages 283-318, February.
- Janmaat, Johannus & Ruijs, Arjan, 2007. "Sharing the load? Floods, droughts, and managing international rivers," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 573-592, August.
- Polachek, Solomon W, 1997. "Why Democracies Cooperate More and Fight Less: The Relationship between International Trade and Cooperation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 295-309, August.
- Shlomi Dinar, 2009. "Scarcity and Cooperation Along International Rivers," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 109-135, February.
- Eric Neumayer, 2002. "Does Trade Openness Promote Multilateral Environmental Cooperation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 815-832, 06.
- Sigman Hilary, 2003. "Does Trade Promote Environmental Coordination?: Pollution in International Rivers," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-26, December.
- Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2007.
"Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements,"
2007.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2008. "Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 249-266, October.
- Ambec, Stefan & Ehlers, Lars, 2008. "Sharing a river among satiable agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 35-50, September.
- Robert T. Deacon, 1994. "Deforestation and the Rule of Law in a Cross-Section of Countries," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 70(4), pages 414-430.
- Lucia De Stefano & James Duncan & Shlomi Dinar & Kerstin Stahl & Kenneth M Strzepek & Aaron T Wolf, 2012. "Climate change and the institutional resilience of international river basins," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 193-209, January.
- Blankespoor, Brian & Basist, Alan & Dinar, Ariel & Dinar, Shlomi, 2012. "Assessing economic and political impacts of Hydrological variability on treaties : case studies on the Zambezi and Mekong basins," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5996, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.