IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v66y2022i3p504-528.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sticks and Stones? Connecting Insurgent Propaganda with Violent Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Maura R. Cremin
  • Bogdan G. Popescu

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between ISIS propaganda content and ISIS-inspired attacks by those outside of the group’s control. We examine the content of ISIS’ English language magazines, as well as speeches by two of its top leaders. We find that statements made about enemy countries in most contexts are not associated with a higher likelihood of violence in those countries. However, when a country is mentioned in ISIS propaganda in the context of its participation in the air campaign, this corresponds to an increased likelihood that the country will experience a violent attack. This suggests that propaganda highlighting key military adversaries may play a role in directing attackers that are outside the control of the organization’s hierarchy to the group’s preferred targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Maura R. Cremin & Bogdan G. Popescu, 2022. "Sticks and Stones? Connecting Insurgent Propaganda with Violent Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(3), pages 504-528, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:3:p:504-528
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027211027291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027211027291
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00220027211027291?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Della Vigna & Ruben Enikolopov & Vera Mironova & Maria Petrova & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2014. "Cross-Border Media and Nationalism: Evidence from Serbian Radio in Croatia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 103-132, July.
    2. Reese, Michael J. & Ruby, Keven G. & Pape, Robert A., 2017. "Days of Action or Restraint? How the Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 439-459, August.
    3. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
    4. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    5. Warren, T. Camber, 2014. "Not by the Sword Alone: Soft Power, Mass Media, and the Production of State Sovereignty," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 111-141, January.
    6. Mitts, Tamar, 2019. "From Isolation to Radicalization: Anti-Muslim Hostility and Support for ISIS in the West," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(1), pages 173-194, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jomon A. Paul & Aniruddha Bagchi, 2019. "Civil Liberties and Terrorism in Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 275(2), pages 623-651, April.
    2. Jetter, Michael, 2017. "Terrorism and the Media: The Effect of US Television Coverage on Al-Qaeda Attacks," IZA Discussion Papers 10708, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Syed Muhammad All-E-Raza Rizvi & Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis, 2019. "Economic, social, and institutional determinants of domestic conflict in fragile States," Working Papers hal-02340977, HAL.
    4. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Paul A. Raschky & Howard C. Kunreuther, 2009. "Corporate Demand for Insurance: An Empirical Analysis of the U.S. Market for Catastrophe and Non-Catastrophe Risks," Working Papers hal-00372420, HAL.
    5. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    6. Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    7. Schneider, Friedrich, 2010. "The (Hidden) Financial Flows of Terrorist and Organized Crime Organizations: A Literature Review and Some Preliminary Empirical Results," IZA Discussion Papers 4860, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Axel Dreher & Merle Kreibaum, 2016. "Weapons of choice," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 53(4), pages 539-553, July.
    9. Michael Jetter & Rafat Mahmood & David Stadelmann, 2024. "Income and Terrorism: Insights From Subnational Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(2-3), pages 509-533, March.
    10. Sarah Brockhoff & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "Ties That Do Not Bind (Directly): The Education-Terrorism Nexus Revisited," Working Papers CIE 26, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    11. Asongu, Simplice A. & Le Roux, Sara & Singh, Pritam, 2021. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Complementarity between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 897-922.
    12. Michael Jetter & David Stadelmann, 2019. "Terror per Capita," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 286-304, July.
    13. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2008. "International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-194, June.
    14. Denis Larocque & Genevieve Lincourt & Michel Normandin, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Terrorist Shocks In Israel," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 317-336.
    15. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Die Finanzströme von organisierter Kriminalität und Terrorismus: was wissen wir (nicht)?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 73-87.
    17. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2023. "Terrorism, Media Coverage, and Education: Evidence from al-Shabaab Attacks in Kenya," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 727-763.
    18. Vicente, Pedro C. & Vilela, Inês, 2022. "Preventing Islamic radicalization: Experimental evidence on anti-social behavior," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 474-485.
    19. Bagchi, Aniruddha & Paul, Jomon A., 2018. "Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 9-20.
    20. Campos, Nauro F. & Gassebner, Martin, 2009. "International Terrorism, Political Instability and the Escalation Effect," IZA Discussion Papers 4061, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:3:p:504-528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.