IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v62y2018i7p1544-1578.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew M. Linke
  • Frank D. W. Witmer
  • John O’Loughlin
  • J. Terrence McCabe
  • Jaroslav Tir

Abstract

We address two questions on the effects of climate change for social instability. First, do droughts and their associated environmental impacts affect support for the use of violence? Second, do local-level formal and informal institutions moderate support for violence when and where droughts worsen? To answer these questions, we conducted a national survey of 1,400 Kenyans in 2014. Respondents were asked about patterns of rainfall and the presence of rules regulating natural resource use and access. Survey data are joined to spatially disaggregated observed rainfall trends. The survey uses endorsement experiments to elicit honest responses about support for using violence. There is some evidence of a direct, though limited, link between observed drought and violent attitudes. Certain local-level natural resource use rules have moderating effects on support for violence where drought is reported and precipitation is less frequent. This conditional and contextual effect is an important modification of overly simplistic narratives of universal climate change effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin & J. Terrence McCabe & Jaroslav Tir, 2018. "Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1544-1578, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:62:y:2018:i:7:p:1544-1578
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002717698018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002717698018
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002717698018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bellows, John & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "War and local collective action in Sierra Leone," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1144-1157, December.
    2. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    3. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & Edward C. Holland & John O'Loughlin, 2017. "Mountainous Terrain and Civil Wars: Geospatial Analysis of Conflict Dynamics in the Post-Soviet Caucasus," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(2), pages 520-535, March.
    4. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    5. Jean-François Maystadt & Margherita Calderone & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 649-671.
    6. Gerdis Wischnath & Halvard Buhaug, 2014. "On climate variability and civil war in Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 709-721, February.
    7. Maarten J Voors & Erwin H Bulte, 2014. "Conflict and the evolution of institutions: Unbundling institutions at the local level in Burundi," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 51(4), pages 455-469, July.
    8. Ayalneh Bogale & Benedikt Korf, 2007. "To share or not to share? (non-)violence, scarcity and resource access in Somali Region, Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 743-765.
    9. Halvard Buhaug, 2015. "Climate–conflict research: some reflections on the way forward," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 269-275, May.
    10. Maarten J. Voors & Eleonora E. M. Nillesen & Philip Verwimp & Erwin H. Bulte & Robert Lensink & Daan P. Van Soest, 2012. "Violent Conflict and Behavior: A Field Experiment in Burundi," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 941-964, April.
    11. Simon N. Wood, 2004. "Stable and Efficient Multiple Smoothing Parameter Estimation for Generalized Additive Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 673-686, January.
    12. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    13. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    14. Graeme Blair & Kosuke Imai & Jason Lyall, 2014. "Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(4), pages 1043-1063, October.
    15. Hsiang, Solomon M & Meng, Kyle C, 2014. "Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa," University of California at Santa Barbara, Recent Works in Economics qt8g60j076, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    16. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    17. Lyall, Jason & Blair, Graeme & Imai, Kosuke, 2013. "Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 679-705, November.
    18. Graeme Blair & C. Christine Fair & Neil Malhotra & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2013. "Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 30-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    2. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 19458, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    6. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    7. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    8. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini & Keti Lelo & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2020. "Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-52, December.
    9. Richard Akresh, 2016. "Climate Change, Conflict, and Children," HiCN Working Papers 221, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    11. Jonathan Goyette & Maroua Smaoui, 2019. "Civil armed conflicts: the impact of the interaction between climate change and agricultural potential," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 1903, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    12. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    13. Papaioannou, Kostadis J. & de Haas, Michiel, 2017. "Weather Shocks and Agricultural Commercialization in Colonial Tropical Africa: Did Cash Crops Alleviate Social Distress?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 346-365.
    14. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
    15. Jonathan Goyette & Maroua Smaoui, 2019. "Civil armed conflicts: the impact of the interaction between climate change and agricultural potential," Cahiers de recherche 19-02, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    16. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    17. Damette, Olivier & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 295-323.
    18. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    19. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño," Working Papers 201617, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    20. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," Working Papers 2016.27, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:62:y:2018:i:7:p:1544-1578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.