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Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs

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  • James D. Morrow

    (Hoover Institution, Stanford University)

Abstract

Alliances are not perfectly credible. Although alliances raise the probability of intervention into war, many allies do not honor their promise in wartime. A formal model of alliances as signals of intentions to explore the credibility of alliances is presented. One state threatens another. A third state shares an interest with the second in preventing the demands of the first. A simple model of a crisis among these three is solved first without an alliance between the second and the third states. The author then allows them the chance to form an alliance before the crisis. Alliances have two effects: (1) the ability of the allies to fight together is increased, and (2) peacetime costs on the allies are imposed. The model with alliances produces a wide range of strategic behaviors. The implications of the model for the formation, credibility, and deterrent effects of alliances are broadly consistent with stylized facts in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Morrow, 1994. "Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 270-297, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:38:y:1994:i:2:p:270-297
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002794038002005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morrow, James D., 1986. "A Spatial Model of International Conflict," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1131-1150, December.
    2. Kreps, David M. & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Reputation and imperfect information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 253-279, August.
    3. Randall Calvert, 1987. "Reputation and legislative leadership," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 81-119, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebagh Thierry, 1995. "Recherche De Rente : Jeu de Guerre et Guerre D'enjeux - II," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2-3), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Jopp, Tobias A., 2017. "How does the public perceive alliances? The Central and Allied Powers in World War I," IBF Paper Series 12-17, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    3. Changxia Ke & Kai A. Konrad & Florian Morath, 2015. "Alliances In The Shadow Of Conflict," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 854-871, April.
    4. Taehee Whang & Hannah June Kim, 2015. "International Signaling and Economic Sanctions," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 427-452, May.
    5. Jesse C. Johnson & Brett Ashley Leeds & Ahra Wu, 2015. "Capability, Credibility, and Extended General Deterrence," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 309-336, March.
    6. Hee Min Kim & Jun Choi, 2002. "Uncertainty in foreign policy making: A Bayesian game analysis of Korea," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 25-40.
    7. Shenkar Oded & Arikan Ilgaz, 2010. "Business as International Politics: Drawing Insights from Nation-State to Inter-Firm Alliances," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-33, January.

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