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The Extended Deterrent Value of Nuclear Weapons

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  • Paul K. Huth

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

Three questions are addressed in this study: (1) Does a nuclear retaliatory capability contribute to extended deterrence against a nonnuclear power? (2) If so, is the deterrent value of nuclear weapons contingent upon the prior credible threat of conventional armed engagement by the defender? (3) Or, is the deterrent impact of nuclear weapons so potent that the conventional balance of forces has little deterrent impact? Competing hypotheses are formulated and then tested by probit analysis. The empirical findings indicate that (a) nuclear weapons do contribute to extended deterrence success, but (b) that effect is not contingent upon the prior threat of conventional armed conflict, and (c) there is an inverse relationship between the conventional balance of forces and the extended deterrent role of nuclear weapons.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul K. Huth, 1990. "The Extended Deterrent Value of Nuclear Weapons," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(2), pages 270-290, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:34:y:1990:i:2:p:270-290
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002790034002005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Quattrone, George A. & Tversky, Amos, 1988. "Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 719-736, September.
    3. Powell, Robert, 1989. "Nuclear Deterrence and the Strategy of Limited Retaliation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 503-519, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakao, Keisuke, 2015. "Indirect Policing: Its Theory, Mechanism, and Application to Combatting Elusive Perpetrators," MPRA Paper 67218, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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