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Context, Methods, Numbers, And Words

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  • William A. Boettcher III

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

In this article, recent attempts to apply prospect theory to the study of international relations are reviewed and evaluated. The review of this literature leads to a number of theoretical and methodological critiques that are highlighted by an experiment that demonstrates the difficulties inherent in attempting to transport this theory across disciplinary boundaries. Of special importance is the introduction of verbal probability expressions into the experimental design. The results of the experiment provide some support for prospect theory, but differences in the results obtained for different verbal probability sets indicate that decision theorists need to be more concerned with the manner in which probabilistic information is conveyed to (and discussed by) decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Boettcher III, 1995. "Context, Methods, Numbers, And Words," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(3), pages 561-583, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:39:y:1995:i:3:p:561-583
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002795039003008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taber, Charles S., 1992. "POLI: An Expert System Model of U.S. Foreign Policy Belief Systems," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 888-904, December.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Quattrone, George A. & Tversky, Amos, 1988. "Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 719-736, September.
    4. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    5. Brun, Wibecke & Teigen, Karl Halvor, 1988. "Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 390-404, June.
    6. Kameda, Tatsuya & Davis, James H., 1990. "The function of the reference point in individual and group risk decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 55-76, June.
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    8. Erev, Ido & Cohen, Brent L., 1990. "Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-18, February.
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