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Spatially Explicit Prediction of Wholesale Electricity Prices

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  • James Wesley Burnett
  • Xueting Zhao

Abstract

Transmission constraints often limit the flow of electricity in a regional transmission network leading to strong interaction effects across different geographically distributed points within the system. In modern wholesale electricity markets, these transmission constraints lead to spatial patterns within the nodal electricity spot prices. This study exploits these spatial patterns to better predict spot prices within a wholesale electricity market. More specifically, we use the latest spatial panel data econometric models to compare within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts against nonspatial panel data models. The spatial panel data approach is explained by demonstrating a simple network optimization model. We find that a dynamic, spatial panel data model provides the best predictions within a forecasting error context. Our results may suggest that the spatial autocorrelation between node prices extends beyond the current market-defined zonal boundaries, which calls into question whether the zonal boundaries accurately reflect the congestion boundaries within the system.

Suggested Citation

  • James Wesley Burnett & Xueting Zhao, 2017. "Spatially Explicit Prediction of Wholesale Electricity Prices," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(2), pages 99-140, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:40:y:2017:i:2:p:99-140
    DOI: 10.1177/0160017615607055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Bowen & Donald J. Lacombe, 2017. "Spatial Dependence in State Renewable Policy: Effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards on Renewable Generation within NERC Regions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    2. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Adam E. Clements & A. Stan Hurn & Zili Li, 2017. "The Effect of Transmission Constraints on Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    4. John J. García & Jesús López-Rodríguez & Jhonny Moncada-Mesa, 2017. "Spatial effects in the bid price setting strategies of the wholesale electricity markets: The case of Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 15660, Universidad EAFIT.
    5. Eric Bowen & Donald J. Lacombe, 2015. "Spatial interaction of Renewable Portfolio Standards and their effect on renewable generation within NERC regions," Working Papers 15-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.

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