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The Chaotic Behavior of Foreign Exchange Rates

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  • Amir D. Aczel
  • Norman H. Josephy

Abstract

This paper explores the use of a measure of chaotic behavior, the correlation dimension, in explaining the unpredictable fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. The resulting calculations indicate that the Singapore dollar has a smaller correlation dimension than four European currencies, consistent with the view that the Singapore dollar is a highly managed currency. We also utilize the correlation dimension to determine the impact of the stock market crash of October 19, 1987 on the five currencies. The four European currencies exhibit a statistically significant decrease in their correlation dimensions, while the Singapore dollar displays no significant change. This is consistent with a hypothesis of a an intervention in the management of the European currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Amir D. Aczel & Norman H. Josephy, 1991. "The Chaotic Behavior of Foreign Exchange Rates," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 35(2), pages 16-24, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:35:y:1991:i:2:p:16-24
    DOI: 10.1177/056943459103500203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    2. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    3. William H. Branson, 1984. "Exchange Rate Policy after a Decade of "Floating"," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 79-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    5. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
    6. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-248.
    7. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, March.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Melike E. Bildirici & Bahri Sonustun, 2019. "Chaotic Behavior in Exchange Rate," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 17-22, January.

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