Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tosun, M. Umur

    ()
    (Department of Public Finance, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Iyidogan, Pelin Varol

    ()
    (Department of Public Finance, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Telatar, Erdinç

    ()
    (Okan University, Department of Banking and Finance, Istanbul,Turkey)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The aim of our paper is to explore empirically the existence of the long-run relationship and the direction of causality between the budget and current account deficits for some selected Central and Eastern European economies. Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia are the sample countries. The empirical analysis hinges on the Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) bounds testing approach to co-integration and Granger non-causality. No evidence in favor of twin deficits hypothesis has been obtained for the selected countries, except for Bulgaria, as the results support non-causality.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_14/rjef2_2014p141-160.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2014)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 141-160

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:2:p:141-160

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
    Phone: 004 021 3188148
    Fax: 004 021 3188148
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: budget deficit; current account deficit; twin deficits hypothesis; bounds testing; Granger non-causality;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2009. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2517-2524.
    2. Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt," GEMF Working Papers 2006-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Selahattin Dibooglu, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation," International Finance 9502003, EconWPA.
    5. Nazma Latif-Zaman & Maria N. DaCosta, 1990. "The Budget Deficit and the Trade Deficit: Insights into This Relationship," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 349-354, Oct-Dec.
    6. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Ghazi Shukur, 2002. "Multivariate-based causality tests of twin deficits in the US," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 817-824.
    7. Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
    8. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
    10. Cristian SOCOL & Radu SOVIANI, 2010. "Experiences of the Large Fiscal Adjustments in EU. Romania’s Case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(12(553)), pages 21-28, December.
    11. Gancho Todorov Ganchev, 2010. "The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 357-377.
    12. Jan Svejnar, 2001. "Transition Economies: Performances and Challenges," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 415, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    14. Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members," MPRA Paper 27466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gordon, Robert J., 1986. "U. S. Fiscal Deficits and the World Imbalance of Payments," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 27(Special I), pages 7-41, January.
    16. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
    17. Michel Normandin, 1996. "Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Macroeconomics 9607001, EconWPA.
    18. Rosenswieg, Jeffrey A & Tallman, Ellis W, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 580-94, October.
    19. Salih Turan Katırcıoglu & Sami Fethı & Meryem Duygun Fethı, 2009. "Twin deficits phenomenon in small islands: an empirical investigation by panel data analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1569-1573.
    20. Pelinescu, Elena, 2013. "The Mechanisms of Arrears in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 223-239, June.
    21. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
    22. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
    23. Papadogonas, Theodore & Stournaras, Yannis, 2006. "Twin deficits and financial integration in EU member-states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 595-602, July.
    24. Vince Daly & Jalal Siddiki, 2009. "The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1155-1164.
    25. Chul-Hwan Kim & Donggeun Kim, 2006. "Does Korea have twin deficits?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 675-680.
    26. Kevin Grier & Haichun Ye, 2009. "Twin Sons Of Different Mothers: The Long And The Short Of The Twin Deficits Debate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 625-638, October.
    27. Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2009. "Bootstrap panel granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1027-1034.
    28. M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
    29. George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
    30. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Twin deficits in CEEC economies: evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1071-1081.
    31. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay, 1998. "Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 487-501.
    32. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
    33. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    34. Zaman, Constantin, 2011. "Assessing the Sustainability of Public Finances in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 106-115, June.
    35. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-81, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:2:p:141-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.