IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-09-00562.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

    (Universiti Putra Malaysia)

  • Evan Lau

    (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS))

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the relevance of the twin deficits hypothesis (TDH) for selected East Asian countries. Empirical results reveal that the admission of regime shifts substantially influences the conclusion that TDH exists in four out of the seven countries that we have investigated. It seems that TDH are less likely to be evident in countries with highly developed financial systems (Singapore and Japan).

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2009. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2517-2524.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00562
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I4-P4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salih Turan Katırcıoglu & Sami Fethı & Meryem Duygun Fethı, 2009. "Twin deficits phenomenon in small islands: an empirical investigation by panel data analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1569-1573.
    2. Eugene Kouassi & Mbodja Mougoué & Kern O. Kymn, 2004. "Causality tests of the relationship between the twin deficits," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 503-525, September.
    3. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    4. Chul-Hwan Kim & Donggeun Kim, 2006. "Does Korea have twin deficits?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 675-680.
    5. Hassan Mohammadi, 2004. "Budget deficits and the current account balance: New evidence from panel data," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(1), pages 39-45, March.
    6. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
    7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 349-386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    9. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    10. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
    11. Anthony J. Makin, 2004. "The Current Account, Fiscal Policy, and Medium‐Run Income Determination," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 309-317, July.
    12. Chorng-Huey Wong & Luis Carranza, 1999. "Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-5.
    13. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    14. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    15. Ahmad Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed Khalid, 2006. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis using VARs and Variance Decomposition," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 331-354.
    16. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    17. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    18. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay, 1998. "Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 487-501.
    19. Yan, Ho-don, 2007. "Does capital mobility finance or cause a current account imbalance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, March.
    20. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
    21. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    22. Vince Daly & Jalal Siddiki, 2009. "The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1155-1164.
    23. Joanne Salop & Erich Spitäller, 1980. "Why Does the Current Account Matter? (Pourquoi le compte courant a-t-il de l'importance?) (¿Por qué importa la balanza en cuenta corriente?)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(1), pages 101-134, March.
    24. Eichengreen, Barry, 2006. "Global imbalances: The new economy, the dark matter, the savvy investor, and the standard analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 645-652, September.
    25. Fountas Stilianos & Wu Jyh-Lin, 1999. "Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 51-58.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cosimo Magazzino, 2021. "The twin deficits in the ASEAN countries," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 227-248, April.
    2. Maria Panova, 2018. "Global aspects of the twin deficit hypothesis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 99-116.
    3. Matthias Hartmann & Helmut Herwartz, 2012. "Consolidation first - About twin deficits and the causal relation between fiscal budget and current account imbalances," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3313-3319.
    4. EL-Moussawi, Chawki & Awdeh, Ali, 2013. "Detecting the Causality between Budget Deficit and Trade Deficit in Lebanon," MPRA Paper 119123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    6. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    7. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Consumption and Current Account in the European Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1330-1344.
    8. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    9. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    10. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    11. Cosimo Magazzino, 2017. "Twin Deficits or Ricardian Equivalence? Empirical Evidence in the APEC Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(10), pages 959-971, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    2. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    3. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    5. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.
    6. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    7. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    8. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    9. António Afonso & Philemon Kwame Opoku, 2018. "The Relationship between Fiscal and Current Account Imbalances in OECD Economies," Working Papers REM 2018/61, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    11. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    12. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    13. Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.
    14. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2022. "The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    15. Loesse Esso, 2012. "Re-examining the saving-investment nexus: threshold cointegration and causality evidence from the ECOWAS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 193-220, August.
    16. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: An Empirical Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2783-2794.
    17. Cosimo Magazzino, 2021. "The twin deficits in the ASEAN countries," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 227-248, April.
    18. Janko, Zuzana, 2020. "On the relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "The relationship between budget deficit and external deficit: the case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2020/0116, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Michalis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2015. "“Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 302-330, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; Budget deficit; Twin deficits hypothesis; Regime shift; Asian countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00562. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.