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How Good are the Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Slovenia?

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Author Info

  • Jagric, Timotej

    () (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Razlagova 14, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia.)

  • Beko, Jani

    () (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Razlagova 14, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia.)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the quality of the macroeconomic forecasts of six institutions that regularly publish forecasts for Slovenia. The analysis focuses on an evaluation of the quality of forecasts for the real and nominal growth of GDP and for the average annual inflation rate for the period from 1997 to 2009. The quality of forecasts for selected macroeconomic variables was evaluated based on five groups of criteria: statistical measures of accuracy, comparison with the results of naive models, trace test, sign test and statistical tests of the unbiasedness and efficiency of forecasts. The results of the analysis do not provide an “absolute winner”, but they do indicate the features of particular forecasts. It is also clear that the developers of models have until now most likely given priority to reducing forecasting errors, while neglecting the congruence in the direction of trend between the forecast and the actual result. The latter criterion in particular is very important for effective economic policy making.

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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p47-67.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 47-67

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    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:47-67

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    Related research

    Keywords: forecasts of macroeconomic variables; loss functions; measures of quality and unbiasedness; evaluation; economic policy;

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    References

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    1. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
    2. Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper 72, National Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1994. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," NBER Technical Working Papers 0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Josef Baumgartner, 2002. "Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 7(4), pages 191-206, December.
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