Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

How Good are the Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Slovenia?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jagric, Timotej

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Razlagova 14, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia.)

  • Beko, Jani

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Razlagova 14, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia.)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper examines the quality of the macroeconomic forecasts of six institutions that regularly publish forecasts for Slovenia. The analysis focuses on an evaluation of the quality of forecasts for the real and nominal growth of GDP and for the average annual inflation rate for the period from 1997 to 2009. The quality of forecasts for selected macroeconomic variables was evaluated based on five groups of criteria: statistical measures of accuracy, comparison with the results of naive models, trace test, sign test and statistical tests of the unbiasedness and efficiency of forecasts. The results of the analysis do not provide an “absolute winner”, but they do indicate the features of particular forecasts. It is also clear that the developers of models have until now most likely given priority to reducing forecasting errors, while neglecting the congruence in the direction of trend between the forecast and the actual result. The latter criterion in particular is very important for effective economic policy making.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p47-67.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 47-67

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:47-67

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
    Phone: 004 021 3188148
    Fax: 004 021 3188148
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: forecasts of macroeconomic variables; loss functions; measures of quality and unbiasedness; evaluation; economic policy;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
    3. Oller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-315.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:47-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.